AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

There are a lot of other things that follow this pattern. 10-30 year predictions are a way to sound confident about something that probably has very low confidence. Not a lot of people will care let alone remember to come back and check.

On the other hand there is a clear mandate for people introducing some different way of doing something to overstate the progress and potentially importance. It creates FOMO so it is simply good marketing which interests potential customers, fans, employees, investors, pundits, and even critics (which is more buzz). And growth companies are immense debt vehicles so creating a sense of FOMO for an increasing pyramid of investors is also valuable for each successive earlier layer. Wish in one hand..