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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 1 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.204s | source
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yibg ◴[17 Apr 25 20:51 UTC] No.43722091[source]▶
Might as well be 10 - 1000 years. Reality is no one knows how long it'll take to get to AGI, because:

1) No one knows what exactly makes humans "intelligent" and therefore 2) No one knows what it would take to achieve AGI

Go back through history and AI / AGI has been a couple of decades away for several decades now.

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1. 827a ◴[17 Apr 25 21:46 UTC] No.43722584[source]▶
Generalized, as an rule I believe is usually true: Any prediction made for an event happening greater-than ten years out is code for that person saying "definitely not in the next few years, beyond that I have no idea", whether they realize it or not.