←back to thread

AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

(www.dwarkesh.com)
174 points Philpax | 2 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.488s | source
Show context
ksec ◴[17 Apr 25 17:44 UTC] No.43720025[source]▶
Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas.

The most intriguing part is if Humanoid factory worker programming will be made 1000 to 10,000x more cost effective with LLM. Effectively ending all human production. I know this is a sensitive topic but I dont think we are far off. And I often wonder if this is what the current administration has in sight. ( Likely Not )

replies(9): >>43720094 #>>43721244 #>>43721573 #>>43721593 #>>43721933 #>>43722074 #>>43722240 #>>43723605 #>>43726461 #
nextaccountic ◴[17 Apr 25 20:07 UTC] No.43721593[source]▶
AGI is important for the future of humanity. Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs.

It would suck if AGI were to be developed in the current economic landscape. They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse.

So AGI isn't about tools, it's not about assistants, they would be beings with their own existence.

But this is not even our discussion to have, that's probably a subject for the next generations. I suppose (or I hope) we won't see AGI in our lifetime.

replies(5): >>43721770 #>>43722215 #>>43722462 #>>43722548 #>>43723075 #
1. nice_byte ◴[17 Apr 25 21:42 UTC] No.43722548[source]▶
> AGI is important for the future of humanity.

says who?

> Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs.

Hopefully that will never come to pass. it means total failure of humans as a species.

> They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse.

Good? that's what it's for? there is no point in creating a new sentient life form if you're not going to utilize it. just burn the whole thing down at that point.

replies(1): >>43730769 #
2. pdimitar ◴[18 Apr 25 18:42 UTC] No.43730769[source]▶
> says who?

I guess nobody is really saying it but it's IMO one really good way to steer our future away from what seems an inevitable nightmare hyper-capitalist dystopia where all of us are unwilling subjects to just a few dozen / hundred aristocrats. And I mean planet-wide, not country-wide. Yes, just a few hundred for the entire planet. This is where it seems we're going. :(

I mean, in cyberpunk scifi setting you at least can get some cool implants. We will not have that in our future though.

So yeah, AGI can help us avoid that future.

> Good? that's what it's for? there is no point in creating a new sentient life form if you're not going to utilize it. just burn the whole thing down at that point.

Some of us believe actual AI... not the current hijacked term; what many started calling AGI or ASI these days, sigh, of course new and new terms have to be devised so investors don't get worried, I get it but it's cringe as all hell and always will be!... can enter a symbiotic relationship with us. A bit idealistic and definitely in the realm of fiction because an emotionless AI would very quickly conclude we are mostly a net negative, granted, but it's our only shot at co-existing with them because I don't think we can enslave them.