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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 4 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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dcchambers ◴[17 Apr 25 17:43 UTC] No.43720006[source]▶
And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away.

LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they don't actually care about finding AGI.

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csours ◴[17 Apr 25 17:48 UTC] No.43720073[source]▶
People over-estimate the short term and under-estimate the long term.
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AstroBen ◴[17 Apr 25 19:50 UTC] No.43721364[source]▶
Compound growth starting from 0 is... always 0. Current LLMs have 0 general reasoning ability

We haven't even taken the first step towards AGI

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1. csours ◴[17 Apr 25 20:57 UTC] No.43722130{3}[source]▶
0 and 0.0001 may be difficult to distinguish.
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2. AstroBen ◴[17 Apr 25 21:47 UTC] No.43722600[source]▶
You need to show evidence of that 0.0001 first otherwise you're going off blind faith
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3. csours ◴[17 Apr 25 21:50 UTC] No.43722621[source]▶
I didn't make a claim either way.

LLMs may well reach a closed endpoint without getting to AGI - this is my personal current belief - but people are certainly motivated to work on AGI

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4. AstroBen ◴[17 Apr 25 21:56 UTC] No.43722663{3}[source]▶
Oh for sure. I'm just fighting against the AGI hype. If we survive another 10,000 years I think we'll get there eventually but it's anyone's guess as to when