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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 5 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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ksec ◴[17 Apr 25 17:44 UTC] No.43720025[source]▶
Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas.

The most intriguing part is if Humanoid factory worker programming will be made 1000 to 10,000x more cost effective with LLM. Effectively ending all human production. I know this is a sensitive topic but I dont think we are far off. And I often wonder if this is what the current administration has in sight. ( Likely Not )

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1. glitchc ◴[17 Apr 25 20:05 UTC] No.43721573[source]▶
I would be thrilled with AI assistive technologies, so long as they improve my capabilities and I can trust that they deliver the right answers. I don't want to second-guess every time I make a query. At minimum, it should tell me how confident it feels in the answer it provides.
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2. blipvert ◴[17 Apr 25 20:34 UTC] No.43721920[source]▶
> At minimum, it should tell me how confident it feels in the answer it provides.

How’s that work out for Dave Bowman? ;-)

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3. rl3 ◴[17 Apr 25 21:54 UTC] No.43722648[source]▶
Well you know, nothing's truly foolproof and incapable of error.

He just had to fall back upon his human wit in that specific instance, and everything worked out in the end.

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4. atombender ◴[19 Apr 25 12:08 UTC] No.43735862{3}[source]▶
Everything worked out, except HAL did kill Poole and the three defenseless scientists on board who were in suspended animation.
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5. rl3 ◴[20 Apr 25 02:58 UTC] No.43741204{4}[source]▶
Of course, I just figured it was funnier without the /s or the spoilers.