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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 1 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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dcchambers ◴[17 Apr 25 17:43 UTC] No.43720006[source]▶
And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away.

LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they don't actually care about finding AGI.

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thomasahle ◴[17 Apr 25 17:45 UTC] No.43720042[source]▶
People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."
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1. numpad0 ◴[17 Apr 25 19:33 UTC] No.43721154[source]▶
Looking back at CUDA, deep learning, and now LLM hypes, I would bet it'll be cycles of giant groundbreaking leaps followed by giant complete stagnations, rather than LLM improving 3% per year for coming 30 years.