←back to thread

AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

(www.dwarkesh.com)
174 points Philpax | 1 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.21s | source
Show context
dicroce ◴[17 Apr 25 17:35 UTC] No.43719918[source]▶
Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
replies(3): >>43719953 #>>43722914 #>>43747545 #
EA-3167 ◴[17 Apr 25 17:37 UTC] No.43719953[source]▶
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
replies(4): >>43719975 #>>43720000 #>>43720090 #>>43720159 #
jdross ◴[17 Apr 25 17:42 UTC] No.43720000[source]▶
I am tech founder, who spends most of my day in my own startup deploying LLM-based tools into my own operations, and I'm maybe 1% of the way through the roadmap I'd like to build with what exists and is possible to do today.
replies(4): >>43720043 #>>43720434 #>>43721156 #>>43753157 #
croes ◴[17 Apr 25 18:20 UTC] No.43720434[source]▶
What has your roadmap to do with the capabilities?

LLMs still hallucinate and make simple mistakes.

And the progress seams to be in the benchmarks only

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43603453

replies(1): >>43721123 #
1. edanm ◴[17 Apr 25 19:30 UTC] No.43721123[source]▶
The parent was contradicting the idea that the existing AI capabilities have already been "digested". I agree with them btw.

> And the progress seams to be in the benchmarks only

This seems to be mostly wrong given peoples' reactions to e.g. o3 that was released today. Either way, progress having stalled for the last year doesn't seem that big considering how much progress there has been for the previous 15-20 years.