AI as Normal Technology

This is a rare piece on AI which takes a coherent middle of the road viewpoint. Saying both that AI is “normal” and that it will be transformative is a radical statement in today’s discussions about AI.

Looking back on other normal but transformative technologies: steam power, electricity, nuclear physics, the transistor, etc you do actually see similarly stratified opinions. Most of those are surrounded by an initial burst of enthusiasm and pessimism and follow a hype cycle.

The reason this piece is compelling is because during the initial hype phase taking a nuanced middle of the road viewpoint is difficult. Maybe AI really is some “next step” but it is significantly more likely that belief is propped up by science fiction and it’s important to keep expectations inline historically.

AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal, so except for the details, it's not a big deal.

Going to be a simultaneously wild and boring ride.

> AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal

100%. It just happened with the advent of the internet and then smartphones.

And thanks to both, future trends are getting established faster and faster. It took about a decade for the internet to go mainstream, maybe five years for smartphones, and now just a year or two for LLMs. It’s pretty fascinating watching that process get more and more compressed over a lifetime.

I think LLMs are actually taking quite some time to become economically and socially relevant. The smartphone/apps boom created a lot of opportunities for thousands of app developers while now besides some toy apps most people are not creating nothing too interesting. Which is funny because LLMs were supposed to make people code faster but everything is still bloated, broken, boring.