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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

(www.molsonhart.com)
842 points putzdown | 1 comments | 15 Apr 25 13:50 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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wormlord ◴[15 Apr 25 14:34 UTC] No.43693350[source]▶
I think the collapse of the American Empire is no more preventible than the collapse of the British, Spanish, or Roman empires. The issues with the US being the reserve currency has been known for a while now (and was even predicted by Keynes before the Bretton-Woods summit):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

Any discussion of "bringing back manufacturing" that doesn't mention government spending or social programs to educate and upskill the population is not genuine. The current leadership are fools and ideologs who will only hasten the decline, which might actually be better globally if it lowers emissions. Time will tell I guess.

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adamrezich ◴[15 Apr 25 15:25 UTC] No.43694150[source]▶
This is explicitly referenced in “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System”, written November 2024 by Stephen Miran—current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers of United States—which outlines the general ideology and strategies behind the current tariff situation.

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...

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Herring ◴[15 Apr 25 15:55 UTC] No.43694669[source]▶
I'd believe that article more if Trump hadn't called on congress to eliminate the CHIPS act, or if tariffs+Musk hadn't undermined it, or if republicans were for the Green New Deal, etc. If you're interested in onshoring, the smart thing would be to work on a targeted approach in high-value areas.

It's a really complicated manoeuvre even if you're not actively trying to shoot yourself in the foot. Eg Domestic factors (automation, corporate offshoring decisions, etc) also contributed to manufacturing job loss. A weaker dollar would probably help, but isn't a silver bullet.

The main article for this post goes into this in a lot of detail.

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1. wormlord ◴[15 Apr 25 16:16 UTC] No.43694991{3}[source]▶
My pet theory is that he was in his 30s when the Plaza Accords happened and they really imprinted on him. If the rising Japanese economy could be brought to heel then so could the Chinese (ignore the fact that Japan was under the US security umbrella). It's no more rational than the fondness you might have for the first car you drove.