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Lotka–Volterra Equations

(en.wikipedia.org)
53 points ustad | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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Kim_Bruning ◴[] No.43676532[source]
A lot of people don't get further than Malthus, and don't realize that he was just the first pioneer. They think "Malthus was wrong", and don't realize the rabbit hole that opens up once you start treating population dynamics mathematically.
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1. perrygeo ◴[] No.43682868[source]
Malthus was wrong only in that he didn't anticipate the massive store of energy we were about to unleash with coil, oil, and gas. We were able to smash through Malthus' predictions because we added more solar energy (in the form of fossilized carbon) to the system. The Haber-Bosch process cranked it up to 11.

In an alternative world where we left fossil fuels in the ground, we would have hit a population ceiling in the 1800s.

In a future world where fossil fuels are no longer accessible (either through climate policy, depletion, or market forces) this means our energy budget needs to shrink - Malthusian limits to our food production will be of concern again, assuming we make it through the climate bottleneck.

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2. chermi ◴[] No.43694223[source]
He was wrong in that he was wrong. I don't blame him for not being to predict what happened, but the industrial revolution had already begun. He had to have been aware that technology can increase efficiencies, and he didn't account for that properly in his models.
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3. jmalicki ◴[] No.43708113[source]
He was wrong in the sense that Newton was wrong about physics - he accurately captured an important dynamic that held absent extreme violations of stasis - e.g. Newton was wrong about relativity and quantum mechanics. Nothing Malthus did was absolutely wrong - it's just that other forces that were unleashed overcame the dynamics he accurately observed.