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689 points taubek | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.449s | source
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rayiner ◴[] No.43632822[source]
Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

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profsummergig ◴[] No.43635965[source]
> Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes.

I blame Peter Zeihan for this kind of thinking. His views are immensely popular in the very powerful and influential circles. And he constantly derides China's capabilities. Since 2014 he's been saying it's going to collapse any day now. He still says it.

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1. snerbles ◴[] No.43648736[source]
There are rank-and-file members of the western intelligence community that watch/read Zeihan just so they know what their own leadership is ingesting.
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2. profsummergig ◴[] No.43651033[source]
Zeihan is a case of believing the message because the messenger is so articulate and charming. He's a tremendously interesting narrative builder (in the vein of Taleb's narrative fallacy). I've been tracking his predictions for a few years now. I want him to be right. Unfortunately, he's seldom right.

He also seems to be veering into fabulism. He's recently said in multiple interviews that there's a clothing factory in North Carolina that is so automated that only 2 "guys" are needed to run it. Raw cotton comes in at one end, and finished clothing comes out at the other (hence Chinese labor is not needed to stitch clothes, hence China is going to collapse any day now).

Why do I believe this is fabulism? He never names this company. And the story has evolved. In earlier interviews he used to say that cloth comes out at the other end. But in a couple of recent interviews he's said finished clothing comes out at the other end.