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689 points taubek | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.026s | source
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rayiner ◴[] No.43632822[source]
Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

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markus_zhang ◴[] No.43637096[source]
> What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

I'm sure that the US still has many edges over China in high-end technology. I remember I read a research article back in 2012/2013 which listed all fields that China were lagging behind, including pharma, computer chips and some other stuffs. It's a fairly long list. I'm sure China managed to catch up in some of the fields but I doubt all of them.

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vitorgrs ◴[] No.43640126[source]
There's a Australian study tracker, and I think things got way closer now...

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/aspis-two-decade-critical-tec...

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refurb ◴[] No.43642283[source]
That doesn’t pass the sniff test.

China leads in 57 of 64 technologies but the US leads in only 7?

It ranks China far ahead of the US on aircraft engines, of which, China can’t even produce its own right now. What?

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1. usef- ◴[] No.43642576[source]
That section is talking about risk — saying that they're now producing a lot more research around novel engines than the US. It's not saying that their own engines are ahead yet, just that risk is high given current progress.

(and they are now producing their own engines, as seen on their new fighters, though they aren't believed to be ahead yet.)

They do lead in many areas now. They have a lot of engineers, hands-on manufacturing heft at scale (inc. a lot of internal competition), and a government that has been pumping and subsidising physical industries for many years.

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2. refurb ◴[] No.43642678[source]
China can’t produce it own jet engines from scratch. The engine on the jet fighters are made on Western tooling machine and have components imported from the West or Russia.

Will China eventually catch up? Absolutely.

But I’d temper any fear of China pulling ahead in research when they can’t even put today’s technology into full production.