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689 points taubek | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.623s | source
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rayiner ◴[] No.43632822[source]
Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

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bboygravity ◴[] No.43635637[source]
Except that that future of a big powerful China doesn't exist. Their birth-rate is 1.

Game-over.

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Izikiel43 ◴[] No.43635806[source]
The USA is also below replacement levels.
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1. bboygravity ◴[] No.43641532[source]
US birthrate is 1.6, really bad, but by far less disasterous and permanent as China's 1.
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2. throwaway2037 ◴[] No.43642400[source]
I Googled: china fertility rate 2024

A couple of reliable sources say: 1.7 births per woman

Where did you get 1?

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3. boelboel ◴[] No.43642736[source]
No credible source says 1.7, the source that says this must be based on some kinda UN projection of 2010. Real TFR is probably around 1.0, in some parts of china it's below 0.7 (in the northeast it's around this number, in Macao it's 0.4). A lot of other countries are completely fucked as well and google pushes up UN projections from years ago (Like colombia UN projects the fertility rate to be higher in 2100 than it is according to the official numbers right now).