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689 points taubek | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.219s | source
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rayiner ◴[] No.43632822[source]
Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

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seanmcdirmid ◴[] No.43638040[source]
The US was going down the "let dominate IP/technology" angle for awhile, but we only accomplished it with imported labor (look at any SWE shop). China is obviously developing the talent to do the same, and they are rapidly automating manufacture work as they approach a demographic cliff. They are basically making all the right investments for the future while we try to go back to the 1950s. It is extremely frustrating.
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rcpt ◴[] No.43639226[source]
They're doing the right thing just about everywhere. Except real estate. One wrong move and it's 90s Japan all over again.
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1. seanmcdirmid ◴[] No.43640157[source]
I think Japan would have pushed through their real estate bubble if they just able to focus on automation like they were in the 80s and 90s. But the rise of cheap labor and great logistics in China ironically did those efforts in (or maybe it came too early?) and the Japanese economy fell behind for two decades.