How much do you think it costs to make a pair of Nike shoes in Asia?

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689 points taubek | 1 comments | 09 Apr 25 12:58 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source

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rayiner ◴[09 Apr 25 14:52 UTC] No.43632822[source]▶

Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

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yodsanklai ◴[09 Apr 25 21:55 UTC] No.43638448[source]▶

>>43632822 #

> We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger.

Is it even possible in terms of resources? there are limits to growth and it may not be feasible for 1.5 billions people to consume and pollute as much as an average American.

Also are the US willing to lose their supremacy peacefully?

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1. refurb ◴[10 Apr 25 02:20 UTC] No.43640026[source]▶

>>43638448 #

That future is far, far off.

China’s per capita GDP is 1/7th that of the US.

To match the US GDP per capita would require China growing at 10%/yr for 35 years (while the US grows at 3-4% per year).

Thats 35 years of phenomenal growth, with no recessions, no “slow” years of only 5% growth (like the past 3 years). Assume an average of 7% growth (and US 3%) and now it takes 50 years to match the US per capita GDP.

This is why GDP growth of 5% is regarded as “bad” in China. They need double that.

And China needs to do this all the while having massive debt overhang, a world moving away from free trade (which their economy is highly dependent on) and a shrinking and rapidly aging population (by 2050 it will be 1 worker per retiree).

I don’t have a crystal ball, so who knows, but suffice to say if things stay relatively the same it’s going to be 2060-2070 before China is as rich as the US on a per capita basis.

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