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Tesla Solar Sales Declined for 4 Qtrs. Then Tesla Stopped Publishing the Numbers

(cleantechnica.com)
171 points elsewhen | 1 comments | 09 Apr 25 12:41 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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boringg ◴[09 Apr 25 13:31 UTC] No.43631867[source]▶
Can I add that outside of the political commentary because thats mainly the only reason this is on hackernews.

There are mounting challenges in climate tech - specifically in residential solar: 1. Residential solar has been under punishing economic headwinds. Tariffs (before this) against imported PV. The market has not been performing. 2. Many of the Public Utilities are making it very difficult for solar to work out financially for home owners - see CPUC in California changing the terms of NEM to the advantage of the Utilities as an example. 3. Energy storage in residential markets has ALWAYS been an insurance product/backup power and not a financially beneficial product. It is tough competition against generators etc 4. Utilities are wisening up and increasing their fees and reducing the benefits of on site power generation. 5. Residential solar has likely already found all the best home owners (ie lowest CAC) so are now pursuing harder to reach.

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lotsofpulp ◴[09 Apr 25 13:39 UTC] No.43631946[source]▶
The risk reward ratio is way off at most people’s electricity prices. At best, you save yourself a few dollars in electricity costs (unless you’re in super high priced and sunny California).

At worst, you need to deal with a roofing problem.

For backup purposes, a generator and some fuel seems to be a lot more bang for the buck.

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matthewdgreen ◴[09 Apr 25 14:13 UTC] No.43632381[source]▶
Generators are garbage, including the standby ones. Maintenance issues are a real problem over the years due to moving parts. Installation also costs a fortune for the standby generators, due to the need for plumbing and electrical going indoors and out —- even though the actual products are cheaper. Battery backup products are just hugely cheaper to install, but the prices need to come down by about 50%. It’s obvious this will happen, because if you look at pricing on battery components and inverters vs. the cost of the “all in one products” it’s obvious there are huge costs and margins in the fancy assembled products that will go away as global manufacturing ramps up (tariffs excepted.)
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boringg ◴[09 Apr 25 15:53 UTC] No.43633493[source]▶
Agreed generators are a PITA but are pretty useful as well. I hope so - I'd much rather go ESS route but two core issues:

1. Length that the asset can provide power in a grid failure (multi day isn't possible at this point except incredibly small load profiles). As a buyer of a generator/ESS I want multiple day coverage on grid failure not momentary grid failure. 2. Cost is way too much for the power you get.

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1. rstuart4133 ◴[09 Apr 25 22:41 UTC] No.43638805[source]▶
> Length that the asset can provide power in a grid failure (multi day isn't possible at this point except incredibly small load profiles).

You gave some personal experiences, so I will match yours. We had a 6.6kW solar panels, with a 4.8kW battery. We lived in a flood zone at the time, so I got a generator after the second time I dumped the meat in the freezer after loss of power.

With all that in place had the usual episode of weeks of wet weather (the monsoons), became an island, the power is disconnected because houses around us (but not us) are inundated as the power company doesn't like being blamed for killing people. The generator was a fail because it couldn't handle the startup load from the fridge and freezer motors.

I didn't have high hopes for the battery. Boy, was I wrong. Turns out 4.8kW is enough to drive everything overnight except hot water, air-con and 2 hour roasts in the oven. And I do mean everything - lights, TV, internet, cooking (well, fast heating), washing machines using cold water, fridges and freezes. It also turns out that a 6.6kW of solar can bring that battery to full charge during the day, even with blanket cloud cover and pissing down rain.

And to your point - it will happily do that for years, without fuel or maintenance. As for costs - a few days ago I saw 10kW hour battery advertised on Alibaba for $1,200, with 90 day returns. At that price, it will pay for itself in power costs. If you add in an electric car, it's a complete no-brainer as while electricity costs may be very cheap where you live, car fuel costs won't be. If that car is a BYD (it has a 3.6kW household power outlet), you don't need a house battery just for emergencies.