The best programmers I know

Not guessing is perhaps the most important thing to the business.

I developed a lot of my problem solving skills in semiconductor manufacturing where the cost of a bad assumption tends to be astronomical. You need to be able to determine exactly what the root cause is 100% of the time or everything goes to hell really fast. If there isn't a way to figure out the root cause, you now have 2 tickets to resolve.

I'll throw an entire contraption away the moment I determine it has accumulated some opacity that antagonizes root cause analysis. This is why I aggressively avoid use of non-vanilla technology stacks. You can certainly chase the rabbit over the fence into the 3rd party's GitHub repo, but I find the experience gets quite psychedelic as you transition between wildly varying project styles, motivations and scopes.

Being deeply correct nearly all of the time is probably the fastest way to build a reputation. The curve can be exponential over time with the range being the value of the problem you are entrusted with.

Ooh, I was in semiconductor manufacturing too! As a junior ion implant engineer, I was looking into yield problems. Some of the tests were flaky and I traced the issue back to one of the transistors not delivering enough current. Great, we know how to fix that! More arsenic! I proposed a small scale experiment, those wafers tested great, and we started rolling out the process change. Those wafers tested great too.

Until we got word back from packaging post test. Every single die failed for excessive current draw. Several hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of scrap. I was correct, but I wasn’t deeply correct.

What surprises me in retrospect is that everybody signed off on this. It’s not like we didn’t have processes, I just somehow managed to talk a bunch of people who should have known better into doing it anyway.