←back to thread

689 points taubek | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
rayiner ◴[] No.43632822[source]
Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

replies(66): >>43633029 #>>43633740 #>>43633979 #>>43634170 #>>43634230 #>>43635003 #>>43635033 #>>43635225 #>>43635278 #>>43635334 #>>43635471 #>>43635491 #>>43635637 #>>43635791 #>>43635923 #>>43635965 #>>43636370 #>>43636516 #>>43636589 #>>43636933 #>>43637091 #>>43637096 #>>43637236 #>>43637388 #>>43637764 #>>43637890 #>>43637962 #>>43638040 #>>43638048 #>>43638164 #>>43638448 #>>43638552 #>>43638604 #>>43638675 #>>43638810 #>>43638985 #>>43639013 #>>43639148 #>>43639294 #>>43639502 #>>43639504 #>>43639511 #>>43639667 #>>43639766 #>>43639770 #>>43639816 #>>43639820 #>>43639966 #>>43640213 #>>43640292 #>>43640451 #>>43641017 #>>43641361 #>>43641971 #>>43642066 #>>43642532 #>>43642662 #>>43642938 #>>43643423 #>>43643596 #>>43643685 #>>43643708 #>>43644078 #>>43646083 #>>43660566 #>>43661419 #
bpt3 ◴[] No.43633029[source]
Their population is declining, and they are a long way away from parity with the west on a per-capita basis. I think China missed their opportunity.

Also, the UK hasn't dominated finance for a century and has never been dominant in services, so it doesn't seem like an apt comparison.

replies(9): >>43633174 #>>43633712 #>>43633758 #>>43633827 #>>43633901 #>>43633954 #>>43634078 #>>43635044 #>>43635578 #
ttoinou ◴[] No.43633712[source]
But look at per capita per purchasing power
replies(3): >>43634910 #>>43635459 #>>43635905 #
1. lotsofpulp ◴[] No.43634910[source]
Power of the purchasing power was a luxury of the US being the most desirable source of stability, creating a high demand for US securities and money. If trust in the US goes down, then so does purchasing power.
replies(1): >>43638210 #
2. slt2021 ◴[] No.43638210[source]
there will always be states-hostages to the US Navy and US Air Force that will be forced to purchase USD, for example Gulf States that basically pay ransom in term of keeping the petrodollar and investing in USD.

The moment oil producing gulf states decide to stop buying USD bonds, they will receive "democracy".

The whole intent to fight Iran is not only to protect Israel, but also to choke off China's major oil supplier. If Iran folds into US control, it will be easier to choke China in terms of energy supplies