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How much do you think it costs to make a pair of Nike shoes in Asia?

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689 points taubek | 2 comments | 09 Apr 25 12:58 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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rayiner ◴[09 Apr 25 14:52 UTC] No.43632822[source]▶
Americans need to get over their view of “Asia” as being about making shoes. When I was working in engineering in the early aughts, we mocked the Chinese as being able only to copy American technology. Today, China is competitive with or ahead of America in key technology areas, including nuclear power, AI, EVs, and batteries.

We need to anticipate a future where China is equal to America on a per capita basis, but four times bigger. Is that a world where “Designed by Apple in California, Made in China” still makes sense? What will be America’s competitive edge in that scenario?

What seems most likely to me in the future is that the US will find itself in the same position the UK is in now. Dominating finance and services won’t mean anything when both the IP and the physical products are being produced somewhere else.

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bpt3 ◴[09 Apr 25 15:10 UTC] No.43633029[source]▶
Their population is declining, and they are a long way away from parity with the west on a per-capita basis. I think China missed their opportunity.

Also, the UK hasn't dominated finance for a century and has never been dominant in services, so it doesn't seem like an apt comparison.

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1. lossolo ◴[09 Apr 25 16:25 UTC] No.43633901[source]▶
The first effects of their population decline will be felt around 2050 by UN estimations. What do you think they’ll be doing for the next 30 years? Considering they already ship more robots than the rest of the world combined, I don't think that will be a huge problem.
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2. boelboel ◴[09 Apr 25 19:26 UTC] No.43636592[source]▶
No their population decline is felt already, they don't have enough people to fill the factories right now and too many highly educated people. This is mostly about people in non stem related fields and non elite universities. If you're a young chinese with a so-so degree you're basically fucked. The UN estimations are fully off for all countries in the world (look at the actual fertility rates published by countries). If you look at UN you'll see like 1.7 fertility rate for colombia, in reality it's 1.0. All countries are kinda demographically fucked, the US is the one that's doing the best. They have been forging their demographic numbers for years already as well. I'm not saying it looks rosy for the US but it's not great for china either unless you believe in some kinda rapid rise in robotisation in the next 10 years.