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Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

(www.lesswrong.com)
579 points paulpauper | 2 comments | 06 Apr 25 18:01 UTC | HN request time: 0.542s | source
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ohgr ◴[06 Apr 25 18:49 UTC] No.43603901[source]▶
It’s not even approaching the asymptotic line of promises made at any achievable rate for the amount of cash being thrown at it.

Where’s the business model? Suck investors dry at the start of a financial collapse? Yeah that’s going to end well…

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maccard ◴[06 Apr 25 19:19 UTC] No.43604138[source]▶
> where’s the business model?

For who? Nvidia sell GPUs, OpenAI and co sell proprietary models and API access, and the startups resell GPT and Claude with custom prompts. Each one is hoping that the layer above has a breakthrough that makes their current spend viable.

If they do, then you don’t want to be left behind, because _everything_ changes. It probably won’t, but it might.

That’s the business model

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ohgr ◴[06 Apr 25 20:31 UTC] No.43604727[source]▶
You missed the end of the supply chain. Paying users. Who magically disappear below market sustaining levels of sales when asked to pay.
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maccard ◴[06 Apr 25 21:21 UTC] No.43605065[source]▶
I never said it was sustainable, and even if it was, OP asked for a business model. Customers don’t need a business model, they’re customers.

The same is true for any non essential good or service.

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1. dragandj ◴[07 Apr 25 10:44 UTC] No.43609832[source]▶
Than any silly idea can be a business model. Suppose I collect dust from my attic and hope to sell it as an add-on on my neighbor's lemonade stand, with a hefty profit for the neighbor, who is getting paid by me $10 to add a handful of dust in each glass and sell it to the customers for $1. The neighbor accepts. It's a business model, at least until I don't run of existing funds or the last customer leaves in disguist. At which point exactly that silly idea stops being an unsustainable business model and becomes a silly idea? I guess at least as early as I see that the funds are running up, and I need to borrow larger an larger lumps of money each time to keep spinning the wheel...
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2. maccard ◴[07 Apr 25 19:52 UTC] No.43615236[source]▶
> Than any silly idea can be a business model.

Indeed it can. The difference between a business model and a viable business model is one word - viable.

If you asked me 18 years ago was "giving away a video game and selling cosmetics" a viable business model I would have laughed at you.If you asked me in 2019 I would probably give you money. If you asked me in 2025, I'd probably laugh at you again.

> and I need to borrow larger an larger lumps of money each time to keep spinning the wheel...

Or you figure out a way to to sell it to your neighbour for $0.50 and he can sell it on for $1.

The play is clear at every level - Nvidia Sell GPUs, OpenAI sell models, and SAAS sell prompts + UI's. Whether or not any of them are viable remains to be seen. Personally, I wouldn't take the bet.