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Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

(www.lesswrong.com)
579 points paulpauper | 2 comments | 06 Apr 25 18:01 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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ohgr ◴[06 Apr 25 18:49 UTC] No.43603901[source]▶
It’s not even approaching the asymptotic line of promises made at any achievable rate for the amount of cash being thrown at it.

Where’s the business model? Suck investors dry at the start of a financial collapse? Yeah that’s going to end well…

replies(2): >>43604138 #>>43608966 #
maccard ◴[06 Apr 25 19:19 UTC] No.43604138[source]▶
> where’s the business model?

For who? Nvidia sell GPUs, OpenAI and co sell proprietary models and API access, and the startups resell GPT and Claude with custom prompts. Each one is hoping that the layer above has a breakthrough that makes their current spend viable.

If they do, then you don’t want to be left behind, because _everything_ changes. It probably won’t, but it might.

That’s the business model

replies(2): >>43604216 #>>43604727 #
grey-area ◴[06 Apr 25 19:31 UTC] No.43604216[source]▶
That’s not a business model, it’s a pipe dream.

This bubble will be burst by the Trump tariffs and the end of the zirp era. When inflation and a recession hit together hope and dream business models and valuations no longer work.

replies(2): >>43604233 #>>43606029 #
1. otterley ◴[06 Apr 25 23:47 UTC] No.43606029{3}[source]▶
The ZIRP era ended several years ago.
replies(1): >>43607884 #
2. grey-area ◴[07 Apr 25 05:00 UTC] No.43607884[source]▶
Yes it did, but the irrational exuberance was ongoing till this trigger.

Now we get to see if Bitcoin’s use value of 0 is really supporting 1.5 trillion market cap and if OpenAI is really worth $300 billion.

I mean softbank just invested in openai, and they’ve never been wrong, right?