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Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit

(www.lesswrong.com)
579 points paulpauper | 4 comments | 06 Apr 25 18:01 UTC | HN request time: 0.004s | source
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ohgr ◴[06 Apr 25 18:49 UTC] No.43603901[source]▶
It’s not even approaching the asymptotic line of promises made at any achievable rate for the amount of cash being thrown at it.

Where’s the business model? Suck investors dry at the start of a financial collapse? Yeah that’s going to end well…

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maccard ◴[06 Apr 25 19:19 UTC] No.43604138[source]▶
> where’s the business model?

For who? Nvidia sell GPUs, OpenAI and co sell proprietary models and API access, and the startups resell GPT and Claude with custom prompts. Each one is hoping that the layer above has a breakthrough that makes their current spend viable.

If they do, then you don’t want to be left behind, because _everything_ changes. It probably won’t, but it might.

That’s the business model

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grey-area ◴[06 Apr 25 19:31 UTC] No.43604216[source]▶
That’s not a business model, it’s a pipe dream.

This bubble will be burst by the Trump tariffs and the end of the zirp era. When inflation and a recession hit together hope and dream business models and valuations no longer work.

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maccard ◴[06 Apr 25 19:33 UTC] No.43604233[source]▶
Which one? Nvidia are doing pretty ok selling GPU's, and OpenAI and Anthropic are doing ok selling their models. They're not _viable_ business models, but they could be.
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1. grey-area ◴[06 Apr 25 21:16 UTC] No.43605028[source]▶
NVDA will crash when the AI bubble implodes, and none of those Generative AI companies are actually making money, nor will they. They have already hit limiting returns in LLM improvements after staggering investments and it is clear are nowhere near general intelligence.
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2. maccard ◴[06 Apr 25 21:23 UTC] No.43605078[source]▶
All of this can be true, and has nothing to do with them having a business model.

> NVDA will crash when the AI bubble implodes, > making money, nor will they > They have already hit limiting returns in LLM improvements after staggering investments > and it is clear are nowhere near general intelligence.

These are all assumptions and opinions, and have nothing to do with whether or not they have a business model. You mightn't like their business model, but they do have one.

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3. grey-area ◴[06 Apr 25 22:21 UTC] No.43605464[source]▶
I consider it a business model if they have plans to make money at some point (no sign of that at openai which are not based on hopium) and are not engaged in fraud like bundling and selling to their own subsidiaries (nvda).

These are of course just opinions, I’m not sure we can know facts about such companies except in retrospect.

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4. ohgr ◴[06 Apr 25 23:46 UTC] No.43606021{3}[source]▶
Yep. Facts are usually found out during the SEC investigation but we know that isn't going to happen now...