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AI 2027

(ai-2027.com)
949 points Tenoke | 2 comments | 03 Apr 25 16:13 UTC | HN request time: 0.021s | source
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barotalomey ◴[04 Apr 25 15:18 UTC] No.43583677[source]▶
It's always "soon" for these guys. Every year, the "soon" keeps sliding into the future.
replies(1): >>43585144 #
somebodythere ◴[04 Apr 25 17:03 UTC] No.43585144[source]▶
AGI timelines have been steadily decreasing over time: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... (switch to all-time chart)
replies(1): >>43585944 #
barotalomey ◴[04 Apr 25 18:14 UTC] No.43585944[source]▶
You meant to say that people's expectations have shifted. That's expected seeing the amount of hype this tech gets.

Hype affects market value tho, not reality.

replies(1): >>43586121 #
1. somebodythere ◴[04 Apr 25 18:29 UTC] No.43586121[source]▶
I took your original post to mean that AI researchers' and AI safety researchers' expectation of AGI arrival has been slipping towards the future as AI advances fail to materialize! It's just, AI advances have been materializing, consistently and rapidly, and expert timelines have been shortening commensurately.

You may argue that the trendline of these expectations is moving in the wrong direction and should get longer with time, but that's not immediately falsifiable and you have not provided arguments to that effect.

replies(1): >>43592229 #
2. barotalomey ◴[05 Apr 25 09:53 UTC] No.43592229[source]▶
> and you have not provided arguments to that effect

The burden of proof lies on those with extraordinary claims. I am simply skeptical.