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AI 2027

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949 points Tenoke | 1 comments | 03 Apr 25 16:13 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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IshKebab ◴[03 Apr 25 17:38 UTC] No.43572994[source]▶
This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.
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danpalmer ◴[03 Apr 25 23:05 UTC] No.43576530[source]▶
These timelines always assume that things progress as quickly as they can be conceived of, likely because these timelines come from "Ideas Guys" whose involvement typically ends at that point.

Orbital mechanics begs to disagree about a Mars colony in 10 years. Drug discovery has many steps that take time, even just the trials will take 5 years, let alone actually finding the drugs.

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wkat4242 ◴[04 Apr 25 00:48 UTC] No.43577202[source]▶
Didn't the covid significantly reduce trial times? I thought that was such a success that they continued on the same foot.
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1. agos ◴[04 Apr 25 08:25 UTC] No.43579630[source]▶
trial times were very brief for Covid vaccines because 1) there was no shortage of volunteers, capital, and political alignment at every level 2) the virus was everywhere and so it was really, really easy to verify if it was working. Compare this with a vaccination for a very rare but deadly disease: it's really hard to know if it's working because you can't just expose your test subjects to the deadly disease!