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949 points Tenoke | 1 comments | 4/3/2025, 4:13:00 PM | HN request time: 0.206s | source

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ikerino ◴[4/3/2025, 5:00:00 PM] No.43572505[source]▶

Feels reasonable in the first few paragraphs, then quickly starts reading like science fiction.

Would love to read a perspective examining "what is the slowest reasonable pace of development we could expect." This feels to me like the fastest (unreasonable) trajectory we could expect.

replies(5): >>43573037 #>>43575733 #>>43577771 #>>43577968 #>>43579600 #

1. ddp26 ◴[4/4/2025, 2:37:00 AM] No.43577771[source]▶

>>43572505 #

The forecasts under "Research" are distributions, so you can compare the 10th percentile vs 90th percentile.

Their research is consistent with a similar story unfolding over 8-10 years instead of 2.

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