This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.
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This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.
Can you share your detailed projection of what you expect the future to look like so I can compare?
Sure
5 years: AI coding assistants are a lot better than they are now, but still can't actually replace junior engineers (at least ones that aren't shit). AI fraud is rampant, with faked audio commonplace. Some companies try replacing call centres with AI, but it doesn't really work and everyone hates it.
Tesla's robotaxi won't be available, but Waymo will be in most major US cities.
10 years: AI assistants are now useful enough that you can use them in the ways that Apple and Google really wanted you to use Siri/Google Assistant 5 years ago. "What have I got scheduled for today?" will give useful results, and you'll be able to have a natural conversation and take actions that you trust ("cancel my 10am meeting; tell them I'm sick").
AI coding assistants are now very good and everyone will use them. Junior devs will still exist. Vibe coding will actually work.
Most AI Startups will have gone bust, leaving only a few players.
Art-based AI will be very popular and artists will use it all the time. It will be part of their normal workflow.
Waymo will become available in Europe.
Some receptionists and PAs have been replaced by AI.
15 years: AI researchers finally discover how to do on-line learning.
Humanoid robots are robust and smart enough to survive in the real world and start to be deployed in controlled environments (e.g. factories) doing simple tasks.
Driverless cars are "normal" but not owned by individuals and driverful cars are still way more common.
Small light computers become fast enough that autonomous slaughter it's become reality (i.e. drones that can do their own navigation and face recognition etc.)
20 years: Valve confirms no Half Life 3.
you should add a bit where AI is pushed really hard in places where the subjects have low political power, like management of entry level workers, care homes or education and super bad stuff happens.
Also we need a big legal event to happen where (for example) autonomous driving is part of a really big accident where lots of people die or someone brings a successful court case that an AI mortgage underwriter is discriminating based on race or caste. It won't matter if AI is actually genuinely responsible for this or not, what will matter is the push-back and the news cycle.
Maybe more events where people start successfully gaming deployed AI at scale in order to get mortgages they shouldn't or get A-grades when they shouldn't.