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AI 2027

(ai-2027.com)
949 points Tenoke | 1 comments | 03 Apr 25 16:13 UTC | HN request time: 0.337s | source
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moab ◴[03 Apr 25 17:17 UTC] No.43572725[source]▶
> "OpenBrain (the leading US AI project) builds AI agents that are good enough to dramatically accelerate their research. The humans, who up until very recently had been the best AI researchers on the planet, sit back and watch the AIs do their jobs, making better and better AI systems."

I'm not sure what gives the authors the confidence to predict such statements. Wishful thinking? Worst-case paranoia? I agree that such an outcome is possible, but on 2--3 year timelines? This would imply that the approach everyone is taking right now is the right approach and that there are no hidden conceptual roadblocks to achieving AGI/superintelligence from DFS-ing down this path.

All of the predictions seem to ignore the possibility of such barriers, or at most acknowledge the possibility but wave it away by appealing to the army of AI researchers and industry funding being allocated to this problem. IMO it is the onus of the proposers of such timelines to argue why there are no such barriers and that we will see predictable scaling in the 2--3 year horizon.

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barbarr ◴[03 Apr 25 18:38 UTC] No.43573646[source]▶
It also ignores the possibility of plateau... maybe there's a maximum amount of intelligence that matter can support, and it doesn't scale up with copies or speed.
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1. pixl97 ◴[03 Apr 25 21:47 UTC] No.43575858[source]▶
Eh, these mathematics still don't work out in humans favor...

Lets say intelligence caps out at the maximum smartest person that's ever lived. Well, the first thing we'd attempt to do is build machines up to that limit that 99.99999 percent of us would never get close to. Moreso the thinking parts of humans is only around 2 pounds of mush in side of our heads. On top of that you don't have to grow them for 18 years first before they start outputting something useful. That and they won't need sleep. Oh and you can feed them with solar panels. And they won't be getting distracted by that super sleek server rack across the aisle.

We do know 'hive' or societal intelligence does scale over time especially with integration with tooling. The amount of knowledge we have and the means of which we can apply it simply dwarf previous generations.