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AI 2027

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949 points Tenoke | 3 comments | 03 Apr 25 16:13 UTC | HN request time: 0.436s | source
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beklein ◴[03 Apr 25 17:12 UTC] No.43572674[source]▶
Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT)

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-...

//edit: remove the referral tags from URL

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motoxpro ◴[03 Apr 25 17:36 UTC] No.43572964[source]▶
That's incredible how much it broadly aligns with what has happened. Especially because it was before ChatGPT.
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reducesuffering ◴[03 Apr 25 18:52 UTC] No.43573807[source]▶
Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal?

This forum has been so behind for too long.

Sama has been saying this a decade now: “Development of Superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity” 2015 https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1

Hinton, Ilya, Dario Amodei, RLHF inventor, Deepmind founders. They all get it, which is why they’re the smart cookies in those positions.

First stage is denial, I get it, not easy to swallow the gravity of what’s coming.

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1. goatlover ◴[03 Apr 25 21:46 UTC] No.43575851[source]▶
> "Development of Superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity”

If that's really true, why is there such a big push to rapidly improve AI? I'm guessing OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Apple, Meta, Boston Dynamics don't really believe this. They believe AI will make them billions. What is OpenAI's definition of AGI? A model that makes $100 billion?

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2. AgentME ◴[03 Apr 25 21:57 UTC] No.43575969[source]▶
Because they also believe the development of superhuman machine intelligence will probably be the greatest invention for humanity. The possible upsides and downsides are both staggeringly huge and uncertain.
3. medvezhenok ◴[04 Apr 25 01:07 UTC] No.43577315[source]▶
You can also have prisoner’s dilemma where no single actor is capable of stopping AI’s advance