ACT post where Scott Alexander provides some additional info: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027.
Manifold currently predicts 30%: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/ai-2027-reports-predictio...
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Manifold currently predicts 30%: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/ai-2027-reports-predictio...