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AI 2027

(ai-2027.com)
949 points Tenoke | 1 comments | 03 Apr 25 16:13 UTC | HN request time: 0.29s | source
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ahofmann ◴[03 Apr 25 17:04 UTC] No.43572563[source]▶
Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.
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Tenoke ◴[03 Apr 25 17:13 UTC] No.43572682[source]▶
That seems naive in a status quo bias way to me. Why and where do you expect AI progress to stop? It sounds like somewhere very close to where we are at in your eyes. Why do you think there won't be many further improvements?
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1. AnimalMuppet ◴[03 Apr 25 17:52 UTC] No.43573129[source]▶
ahofmann didn't expect AI progress to stop. They expected it to continue, but not lead to AGI, that will not lead to superintelligence, that will not lead to a self-accelerating process of improvement.

So the question is, do you think the current road leads to AGI? How far down the road is it? As far as I can see, there is not a "status quo bias" answer to those questions.