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105 points jfantl | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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dlojudice ◴[] No.43552972[source]
Agent-based modeling offers a more realistic approach to economic systems than traditional equilibrium models. New approachs including generative agents (ABM+LLMs) are promising. J. Doyne Farmer's recent book "Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World" is a great reading for those interested in this field.

https://www.amazon.com/Making-Sense-Chaos-author/dp/02412019...

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huitzitziltzin ◴[] No.43553188[source]
No. There is no macroeconomist who wouldn’t adopt these approaches if they were “better”.

Agent based models have been around since the 1980’s at least. No one uses them in central banks, no one uses them in industry, and you can be very confident that they’ve tried.

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abdullahkhalids ◴[] No.43554007[source]
Neural network based computer vision models also existed for decades. They weren't very good and weren't really used, till early 2010s when people figured out how to make them work. Now they are vastly superior to all the other ways.

This is quite common across the sciences. Some technique doesn't seem to work because of missing crucial insights or technology. Then somebody fills the gaps, and the technique works.

These types of models in economics might or might not become viable at some point.

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1. huitzitziltzin ◴[] No.43563767[source]
There are plenty of people working on the application of ML in economics, including NN methods, and including in macro.

That’s a totally different class of model to this agent based approach. People in the (small) agent based modeling community have been pushing their stuff for decades to no effect.

Sure it’s possible that there’s some amazing advance I can’t see coming in the future but as of now I would not recommend anyone pursue ABM.