On one hand, you have people claiming "AI" can now do SWE tasks which take humans 30 minutes or 2 hours and the time doubles every X months so by Y year, SW development will be completely automated.
On the other hand, you have people saying exactly what you are saying. Usually that LLMs have issues even with small tasks and that repeated/prolonged use generates tech debt even if they succeed on the small tasks.
These 2 views clearly can't both be true at the same time. My experience is the second category so I'd like to chalk up the first as marketing hype but it's confusing how many people who have seemingly nothing to gain from the hype contribute to it.
Meanwhile, the 'experts' are saying something entirely different and being told they're wrong or worse, lying.
I'm sure you've seen it before, but this propaganda, in particular, is the holy grail of 'business people'. The ones who "have a great idea, just need you to do all the work" types. This has been going on since the late 70s, early 80s.
When a bunch of people very loudly and confidently say your profession, and something you're very good at, will become irrelevant in the next few years, it makes you pay attention. And when you then can't see what they claim to be seeing, then it makes you question whether something is wrong with you or them.
However, I think this time is qualitatively different. This time the rich people who wanna get rid of us are not trying to replace us with other people. This time, they are trying to simulate _us_ using machines. To make "us" faster, cheaper and scalable.
I don't think LLMs will lead to actual AI and their benefit is debatable. But so much money is going into the research that somebody might just manage to build actual AI and then what?
Hopefully, in 10 years we'll all be laughing at how a bunch of billionaires went bankrupt by trying to convince the world that autocomplete was AI. But if not, a whole bunch of people will be competing for a much smaller pool of jobs, making us all much, much poorer, while they will capture all the value that would have normally been produced by us right into their pockets.