←back to thread

Has the decline of knowledge work begun?

(www.nytimes.com)
388 points pseudolus | 5 comments | 25 Mar 25 17:02 UTC | HN request time: 0.017s | source
Show context
hgs3 ◴[27 Mar 25 16:53 UTC] No.43495502[source]▶
The vast majority of jobs that sustain our standard of living are blue-collar: farmers who grow our food, textile workers who make our clothes, construction workers who build our homes, plumbers, electricians, waste disposal workers, etc. I'd say it's white-collar work that became overinflated this past century, largely as a reaction to the automation and outsourcing of many traditional blue-collar roles.

Now, with white-collar jobs themselves increasingly at risk, it's unclear where people will turn. The economic pie continues to shrink, and I don't see that trend reversing.

It appears to me that our socio-economic model simply doesn't scale with technology. We need to have a constructive conversation about how to adapt.

replies(6): >>43495605 #>>43495639 #>>43496127 #>>43496376 #>>43496444 #>>43497198 #
1. libertine ◴[27 Mar 25 17:04 UTC] No.43495605[source]▶
> It appears to me that our socio-economic model simply doesn't scale with technology. We need to have a constructive conversation about how to adapt.

This doesn't add up with the number of billionaires and the growth over the last decades - it just seems that there's a bottleneck and the value captured from technology isn't trickling down.

Of course, you can claim that such "billionaires" and that part of that "value" is the result of speculation, but since billionaires can use that speculation to buy money and acquire more assets, then for sure there's some value there that isn't getting to the vast majority of the people.

replies(1): >>43495683 #
2. SR2Z ◴[27 Mar 25 17:13 UTC] No.43495683[source]▶
My 2c is that most normal people are incapable of capturing this kind of value simply because they aren't educated enough on how to use a computer to do these things.

ChatGPT is the first time in a while that a new technology is easy enough to use and integrate that the productivity gains could be captured by the lowest-skilled workers.

Uber/Lyft are the antithesis of this: their apps do very simple things but at scale and with an eye towards confusing their drivers. It's not unthinkable that a co-op version of these apps could exist, but the folks with the skills to build them get snapped up by big tech pretty quick.

IMO if we want to share the wealth, the ONLY way to do it is by upskilling workers and simplifying technology.

replies(3): >>43495908 #>>43496832 #>>43497875 #
3. sssilver ◴[27 Mar 25 17:36 UTC] No.43495908[source]▶
The problem with building Uber and Lyft isn’t the process of writing the software — that’s been done many times over.

The hard part of course is investing the money in marketing and support to match the user recognition and experience that Uber and Lyft, subsidized by VC wallets, can provide to their customers.

4. libertine ◴[27 Mar 25 18:55 UTC] No.43496832[source]▶
One of the things you have to take into account is that a lot of these tech companies grew in the gaps of regulation, while legacy companies were forced to abide by standards and regulations; for a lot of tech companies, they broke the markets and thrived in the infrastructure paid for by taxpayers.

Uber, Airbnb are good examples of this. When regulation caught up with them, the damage was done for better or worse. To this day, some regulators still struggle to keep up due to the lack of resources, and the tech does achieve this... and now you have tech oligarchs dismantling the government bodies responsible for regulation.

So I don't think it's just a matter of people upskilling to generate more value, because people pay taxes for the work they do - they can't afford the lawyers and structures to avoid this. The people who have the luck and the opportunities to generate this kind of value are already doing it, or will do it, or don't want to do it.

So while I agree with you, and people should have access to the opportunities to upskill and to generate value, I also think there's a massive gap in income and taxes in a lot of democratic countries. These things can go, and should go, together.

5. criddell ◴[27 Mar 25 20:36 UTC] No.43497875[source]▶
> a co-op version of these apps could exist

There are a bunch of white-label ride share apps. When Austin banned Uber and Lyft in 2016 it took about a day before new services popped up to replace them.