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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.624s | source
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mjburgess ◴[] No.43487426[source]
Waymos choose the routes, right?

The issue with self-driving is (1) how it generalises across novel environments without "highly-available route data" and provider-chosen routes; (2) how failures are correlated across machines.

In safe driving failures are uncorrelated and safety procedures generalise. We do not yet know if, say, using self-driving very widely will lead to conditions in which "in a few incidents" more people are killed in those incidents than were ever hypothetically saved.

Here, without any confidence intervals, we're told we've saved ~70 airbag incidents in 20 mil miles. A bad update to the fleet will easily eclipse that impact.

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timewizard ◴[] No.43491352[source]
You would save more lives by harshly punishing drunk or influenced driving; however, most of the lives you save would be that of the drinker or the abuser.

You would save more lives by outlawing motorcycles; however, it would just be the motorcyclists themselves.

Another thing people don't consider is that not all seats in a vehicle are equally safe. The drivers seat is the safest. Front passenger is less safe but still often twice as safe as sitting in the backseat. If you believe picking up your elderly parents and then escorting them in your backseat is safer than them driving alone you might be wrong. This is a fatality mode you easily recognize in the FARS data. Where do most people in a robotaxi sit?

Your biggest clear win would be building better pedestrian infrastructure and improving roadway lighting to reduce pedestrian deaths.

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1. BalinKing ◴[] No.43494025[source]
> Front passenger is less safe but still often twice as safe as sitting in the backseat

Is there a good source for this? I was always under the impression that it was the exact opposite….

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2. timewizard ◴[] No.43497287[source]
We've been improving front seat safety systems for years while not adding much in the back seat. The result is obvious in the fatalities data and many institutions have involved themselves in this problem. Here's one:

https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/new-crash-test-spotlights-l...

There are _so many_ bad assumptions about vehicle safety it honestly drives me nuts. Especially on Hacker News. The data is available from NHTSA in a database called FARS. I encourage everyone to go look through the data. You almost certainly believe several wrong things about driving and fatalities.

I think Elon Musk is exceptionally irresponsible for using these statistics in a flatly dishonest and misleading way. He wants to sell vehicles not truly educate you about safety. People should double check.

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3. yolovoe ◴[] No.43500520[source]
This is a really good link. Will definitely refer to this when making a car purchase in the future. Thanks!

It seems like Volvo's reputation as one of the safest car is still well deserved after all. I don't own a Volvo--too expensive for me, but good to know.