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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 5 comments | 26 Mar 25 20:57 UTC | HN request time: 0.895s | source
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wnissen ◴[26 Mar 25 21:37 UTC] No.43487648[source]▶
Serious crash rates are a hockey stick pattern. 20% of the drivers cause 80% of the crashes, to a rough approximation. For the worst 20% of drivers, the Waymo is almost certainly better already.

Honestly, at this point I am more interested in whether they can operate their service profitably and affordably, because they are clearly nailing the technical side.

For example data from a 100 driver study, see table 2.11, p. 29. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/37370 Roughly the same number of drivers had 0 or 1 near-crashes as had 13-50+. One of the drivers had 56 near crashes and 4 actual crashes in less than 20K miles! So the average isn't that helpful here.

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londons_explore ◴[27 Mar 25 06:18 UTC] No.43490833[source]▶
> One of the drivers had 56 near crashes and 4 actual crashes in less than 20K miles!

There would be a strong argument to simply banning the worst 1% of drivers from driving, and maybe even compensating them with lifetime free taxi rides, on the taxpayers dime.

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1. eptcyka ◴[27 Mar 25 06:43 UTC] No.43490972[source]▶
Perverse incentives will just balloon the bad driver population. Funny, since the brits have a history with these kinds of things.
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2. allan_s ◴[27 Mar 25 07:03 UTC] No.43491065[source]▶
Yes something like free bus card and N kilometers of taxi fares per month, so that :

1. People who normally take the bus are not incentivise to get their driving license /make a big accident

2. People already driving are still blt rewarded ,just not blocked

3. One may argue that if some of the borderline "not that dangerous but still..." driver do it on purpose to cross the line it still may benefits soxiety economically wise

3. n4r9 ◴[27 Mar 25 11:59 UTC] No.43492673[source]▶
Hang on, why are brits suddenly being mentioned?
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4. eptcyka ◴[27 Mar 25 16:38 UTC] No.43495360[source]▶
I am making rather overextended assumptions as to the ethnicity/nationality of the original poster based on their username.
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5. n4r9 ◴[27 Mar 25 21:17 UTC] No.43498289{3}[source]▶
Aahh. I think your extrapolation is indeed correct.