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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.473s | source
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paxys ◴[] No.43487851[source]
Worth repeating the same comment I've left on every variant of this article for the last 10 years.

Being better than "average" is a laughably low bar for self-driving cars. Average drivers include people who drive while drunk and on drugs. It includes teenagers and those who otherwise have very little experience on the road. It includes people who are too old to be driving safely. It includes people who are habitually speed and are reckless. It includes cars that are mechanically faulty or otherwise cannot be driven safely. If you compile accident statistics the vast majority will fall into one of these categories.

For self driving to be widely adopted the bare minimum bar needs to be – is it better than the average sensible and experienced driver?

Otherwise if you replace all 80% of the good drivers with waymos and the remaining 20% stay behind the wheel, accident rates are going to go up not down.

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Retric ◴[] No.43487897[source]
There’s no statistics for how much a sensible and experienced driver crashes.

Sorting people by past behavior runs into survivorship bias when looking back and people who stop being sensible going forward. I’m personally a poor driver, but I don’t drive much so my statistics still look good.

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1. IneffablePigeon ◴[] No.43488088[source]
There’s _no_ statistics? Surely those statistics are precisely what all car insurance premiums are based upon. They might be proprietary but I am certain such statistics exist.
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2. Retric ◴[] No.43490352[source]
The best bucket insurance companies can use is based on age, car choices, and past behavior etc. Yet, a percentage of such people still end up in deadly accidents because they drove drunk, or while looking at their phones and such.

Insurance companies can’t know your future behavior so must hedge for a percentage of future idiots being in any bucket. On the flip side some people in the multiple DUI bucket end up driving sensibly over the next 6 months.