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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 6 comments | 26 Mar 25 20:57 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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paxys ◴[26 Mar 25 21:54 UTC] No.43487851[source]▶
Worth repeating the same comment I've left on every variant of this article for the last 10 years.

Being better than "average" is a laughably low bar for self-driving cars. Average drivers include people who drive while drunk and on drugs. It includes teenagers and those who otherwise have very little experience on the road. It includes people who are too old to be driving safely. It includes people who are habitually speed and are reckless. It includes cars that are mechanically faulty or otherwise cannot be driven safely. If you compile accident statistics the vast majority will fall into one of these categories.

For self driving to be widely adopted the bare minimum bar needs to be – is it better than the average sensible and experienced driver?

Otherwise if you replace all 80% of the good drivers with waymos and the remaining 20% stay behind the wheel, accident rates are going to go up not down.

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1. floxy ◴[26 Mar 25 21:58 UTC] No.43487873[source]▶
Why wouldn't alcoholics and the elderly be early adopters of self-driving vehicles. Or what can we do to encourage them to be early adopters? You get a DUI, and you are forced to pay for FSD? Get a reduce rate on booze taxes if you "drive" an AV? Have to take a driving test every 2 years after you turn 75, unless you have an AV?
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2. paxys ◴[26 Mar 25 21:59 UTC] No.43487900[source]▶
"XYZ demographic should be forced to use self driving cars" is a fantasy that the tech crowd continues to believe but will never happen. Everyone is able to drive and will continue to be able to drive. In fact you should assume that the worse someone is at driving the more likely they are to want to drive for themselves, because that's how the world usually works.
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3. aithrowawaycomm ◴[26 Mar 25 22:04 UTC] No.43487951[source]▶
Even in self-driving, Telsa's behavior proves there is a market for cars that are programmed to speed and roll through stop signs. Waymos are safer than the average human, but the average human also intentionally chooses a strategy that trades risk for speed. Indeed, Waymo trips on average take about 2x as long as Ubers: https://futurism.com/the-byte/waymo-expensive-slower-taxis

What happens if an upstart self-driving competitor promises human-level ETAs? Is a speeding Waymo safer than a speeding human?

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4. senordevnyc ◴[26 Mar 25 22:06 UTC] No.43487969[source]▶
Over the next decade or two, insurance will solve a chunk of this problem (it'll be way more expensive to drive yourself), regulations will solve another chunk, but the biggest thing that will solve it: we're lazy.

We might drive every now and then, but come on, do you really think once this is ubiquitous and you can get in a (or your) car and then play a video game, take a nap, text on your phone, or doomscroll, that we're still going to want to drive all the time?

Nah.

5. potato3732842 ◴[27 Mar 25 01:24 UTC] No.43489486[source]▶
I think it's the inverse. The people who are left lane camping in their Fiat 500 because the right lane has merging and that's scary will be the early adopters. The people who really "get it" will keep driving themselves because they can do better.

This is basically the same adoption path as every other labor saving tech.

6. ArekDymalski ◴[27 Mar 25 07:13 UTC] No.43491122{3}[source]▶
I can imagine that wide adoption of AVs could increase the speed limits (at least for them if not all vehicles). Also I believe that high saturation of AVs will finally shorten ETAs naturally as stable, predictable driving without cutting in, forcing others to stop suddenly etc. reduces traffic jams. (Can't find the study that opened my eyes on that right now).