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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 19 comments | 26 Mar 25 20:57 UTC | HN request time: 1.892s | source | bottom
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wnissen ◴[26 Mar 25 21:37 UTC] No.43487648[source]▶
Serious crash rates are a hockey stick pattern. 20% of the drivers cause 80% of the crashes, to a rough approximation. For the worst 20% of drivers, the Waymo is almost certainly better already.

Honestly, at this point I am more interested in whether they can operate their service profitably and affordably, because they are clearly nailing the technical side.

For example data from a 100 driver study, see table 2.11, p. 29. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/37370 Roughly the same number of drivers had 0 or 1 near-crashes as had 13-50+. One of the drivers had 56 near crashes and 4 actual crashes in less than 20K miles! So the average isn't that helpful here.

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dangus ◴[26 Mar 25 21:46 UTC] No.43487761[source]▶
I saw a transit enthusiast YouTube video try out Waymo from the most distant part of the network to fisherman’s wharf in SF and it cost twice as much as an Uber while having a longer wait time for a car.

It also couldn’t operate on the highway so the transit time was nearly double.

One shouldn’t underestimate how economical real human operators are. It’s not like Uber drivers make a ton of money. Uber drivers often have zero capital expense since they are driving vehicles they already own. Waymo can’t share the business expense of their vehicles with their employees and have them drive them home and to the grocery store.

I’m sure it’ll improve but this tells me that Waymo’s price per vehicle including all the R&D expenses must be astronomical. They are burning $2 billion a year at the current rate even though they have revenue service.

Plus, they actually have a lot of human operators to correct issues and talk to police and things like that. Last number I found on that was over one person per vehicle but I’m not sure if anyone knows for sure.

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1. orangecat ◴[26 Mar 25 21:50 UTC] No.43487796[source]▶
I saw a transit enthusiast YouTube video try out Waymo from the most distant part of the network to fisherman’s wharf in SF and it cost twice as much as an Uber, had a longer wait time for a car, and cost about double.

That's literally an edge case. For shorter trips, I've found it to be slightly cheaper (especially factoring in the lack of tips) with maybe a slightly longer wait.

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2. fallinghawks ◴[26 Mar 25 23:15 UTC] No.43488595[source]▶
I've taken Waymo only twice (I try to avoid SF), from the ferry building to Chinatown, then back. Both times it was more expensive than Lyft with tip, but only by $2-3. It's good to know it can be cheaper.
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3. brokensegue ◴[27 Mar 25 03:33 UTC] No.43490148[source]▶
lyft charges more for nicer cars so a fair comparison might be to lyft's more premium service
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4. nemothekid ◴[27 Mar 25 03:38 UTC] No.43490175[source]▶
I don't really find this to be the case at all. I've had Waymo for ~2 years now (since the private program), and I've never noticed it being quicker or cheaper than an Uber. I have several hundred rides; I prefer the service - but I've never once told people it's cheaper or faster.

Currently, on Wednesday March 26th at 8:34 a ride from Bar Part Time in the Mission to Verjus in North Beach is $21.17 with a estimated 8 minute pickup time. The same ride on UberX has an estimated 2 minute pickup time at a cost of $15.34. I could see it being cheaper if you top 20% - but I don't tip nearly that high on Uber rides.

I will admit that I could possibly be self-selecting to peak times as I own a car in the city, so I only use ride share in the evenings; so it may very well be the case that the price/wait is more competitive at off-peak hours.

Furthermore, it's quite surprising to me that it seems that the human labor cost doesn't affect the price at all. The only price controls seems to be demand and the latent demand is enough to create a price floor where there is always a human that is willing to drive. It also seems like plain old logistics and traffic will prevent Waymo from providing enough supply to offer dirt cheap rides. The fact that a ride that would have cost me $5 in 2016 is almost 4x as much with "magic self driving technology" is not something I could have told my 2016 self.

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5. dangus ◴[27 Mar 25 03:39 UTC] No.43490185[source]▶
Still, it kind of sounded like any trip involving the highway would be advantage Uber.
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6. dangus ◴[27 Mar 25 03:47 UTC] No.43490225{3}[source]▶
This comparison doesn’t work.

Not all Waymo riders actually want the premium cars and we can’t assume that’s why they are choosing Waymo.

We have to assume that some and perhaps most riders would prefer to pay less to ride in a cheaper car but are mainly choosing Waymo because its autonomous (cool factor, the no-human factor).

Also, California mandates autonomous vehicles be fully electric by 2030. So Waymo literally has to be driving some kind of EV to comply very soon.

Jaguar’s I-pace was a poor-selling EV SUV from a struggling company with a lot of leftover inventory, so it’s almost a guarantee that Waymo got a great fleet deal on them.

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7. seanmcdirmid ◴[27 Mar 25 04:11 UTC] No.43490335[source]▶
You are also comparing Way-mo to UberX when it is more comparable to Uber comfort, but that’s often only a few dollars difference. Really, Waymo needs to come to Seattle, our uber costs are sky high and it would be easy to actually be cheaper than most uber rides here when it’s already $40 to go a short distance.
8. seanmcdirmid ◴[27 Mar 25 04:14 UTC] No.43490350{4}[source]▶
The cars are comfortable, even if they aren’t popular. If I had to choose between a beat up Prius uber-X or a Jaguar for a few dollars more, I’m definitely choosing the latter. I had a Mercedes (older cheaper model with mechanical issues) Uber-X fall apart on my ride in Orange County last month (my son and I were dumped near a nice mall at least), also I bet the Waymo doesn’t smell like cigarette smoke.
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9. krupan ◴[27 Mar 25 04:22 UTC] No.43490378[source]▶
Yes. For now
10. ajmurmann ◴[27 Mar 25 04:51 UTC] No.43490482{5}[source]▶
To me the consistency in Waymos is so valuable. If I take a Waymo in SF or LA it's gonna be the same type of car, it's very well kept, the driver has the same driving style and the same conversation preferences.
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11. seanmcdirmid ◴[27 Mar 25 05:03 UTC] No.43490533{6}[source]▶
Unfortunately I’ve only used it a few times in SF, but I would really love that. I don’t prefer human drivers much anymore (like I want to use self checkout at a grocery store). I’m going to Beijing in a couple of weeks and hope to try whatever they have going on there.
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12. Symbiote ◴[27 Mar 25 08:57 UTC] No.43491588{7}[source]▶
From a quick search, you might need a local to book it, i.e. register the journey with the state apparatus.

(This is a city where buying a simple 40¢ metro ticket requires showing identification.)

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13. steveBK123 ◴[27 Mar 25 11:41 UTC] No.43492564{5}[source]▶
Worth noting how much the quality of each tier of Uber has degraded as well. In 2025, Uber Black car/driver quality is like Uber-X of 2019. Not unusual to get in an Uber Black with blown out shocks, smelling of cigarettes and streetcart food. Reminds me of yellow cab days.
14. dangus ◴[28 Mar 25 03:37 UTC] No.43501269{5}[source]▶
It’s great that you and the other contrarians in this thread value that, but my point is that the general consumer likely overwhelmingly chooses to pick whatever is cheapest save for specialized selections like XL or pet.

I think the best evidence of that is how uber/lyft has to use grey-ish patterns to get you to choose upmarket options. They don’t list the fares sorted by price or even list the options in a consistent order, they will strongly suggest upsells like comfort or black or whatever tier they think gives the best chance of convincing you to pay more than the bare minimum.

They also upsell faster pickup which I have to think is a way better value proposition than sitting in a nicer car temporarily.

15. dangus ◴[28 Mar 25 03:38 UTC] No.43501276{7}[source]▶
This amuses me, because if you’re going to Beijing you can just use the way-better-than-America public transportation.
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16. seanmcdirmid ◴[28 Mar 25 04:45 UTC] No.43501635{8}[source]▶
Not always and not everywhere. I lived in Beijing for 9 years on a subway line (well, after line 10 opened) that would have taken me almost straight to work, but it was so packed I still took a taxi. Maybe the extra lines/capacity makes it more comfortable now, but it wasn’t Tokyo when I was living there.
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17. fallinghawks ◴[28 Mar 25 22:44 UTC] No.43510683{3}[source]▶
I always pick the cheapest Lyft available; I'm not spending a whole lotta time in it so a luxury ride isn't a priority.
18. seanmcdirmid ◴[29 Mar 25 05:02 UTC] No.43512888{8}[source]▶
It’s really not that hard to buy a metro ticket. But we pay/alipay will make it easier, or I could just get a couple of IC cards that have been around since forever.
19. dangus ◴[02 Apr 25 14:13 UTC] No.43556929{9}[source]▶
Beijing: “I could take the train but the public transit is so useful and frequent that it’s crowded so I took a taxi :’(“

My medium sized American city: “what train? What bus? What taxi?