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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 1 comments | 26 Mar 25 20:57 UTC | HN request time: 0.207s | source
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mjburgess ◴[26 Mar 25 21:19 UTC] No.43487426[source]▶
Waymos choose the routes, right?

The issue with self-driving is (1) how it generalises across novel environments without "highly-available route data" and provider-chosen routes; (2) how failures are correlated across machines.

In safe driving failures are uncorrelated and safety procedures generalise. We do not yet know if, say, using self-driving very widely will lead to conditions in which "in a few incidents" more people are killed in those incidents than were ever hypothetically saved.

Here, without any confidence intervals, we're told we've saved ~70 airbag incidents in 20 mil miles. A bad update to the fleet will easily eclipse that impact.

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1. kccqzy ◴[26 Mar 25 21:37 UTC] No.43487655[source]▶
I don't agree with this novel environment argument about routes. As a human, there are a limited number of roads that I have driven on. A taxi driver drives better than me because none of the routes are considered novel: the taxi driver has likely driven on every road in a city in his/her career. The self-driving machine has most definitely driven on every single road in the city, perhaps first as testing with human backup, then testing with no passengers, and finally passenger revenue miles.