Waymos crash less than human drivers

> The issue with self-driving is (1) how it generalises across novel environments

That's also an issue with humans though. I'd argue that traffic usually appears to flow because most of the drivers have taken a specific route daily for ages - i.e., they are not in a novel environment.

When someone drives a route for the first time, they'll be confused, do last-minute lane changes, slow down to try to make a turn, slow down more than others because because they're not 100% clear where they're supposed to go, might line up for and almost do illegal turns, might try to park in impossible places, etc.

Even when someone has driven a route a handful of times they won't know and be ready for the problem spots and where people might surprise they, they'll just know the overall direction.

(And when it is finally carved in their bones to the point where they're placing themselves perfectly in traffic according to the traffic flow and anticipating all the usual choke points and hazards, they'll get lenient.)

People have eyes, ears, a voice, hands, etc.

You've a very narrow definition of novel, which is based soley on incidental features of the environment.

For animals, a novel situation is one in which their learnt skills to adapt to the environment fail, and have to acquire new skills. In this sense, drivers are rarely in novel environments.

For statistical systems, novelty can be much more narrowly defined as simply the case where sensory data fails a similar-distribution test with historical data --- this is vastly more common, since the "statistical profile of historical cases, as measured, in data" is narrow.. whilst the "situations skills apply to" is wide.

An example definition of narrow/wide, here: the amount of situations needed to acquire safety in the class of similar environments is exponential for narrow systems, and sublinear for wide ones. ie., A person can adapt a skill in a single scenario, whereas a statistical system will require exponentially more data in the measures of that class of novel scenarios.

I have a very wide definition of novel - any exact environment you have not yet traversed. First time taking that right turn? Novel route.

Out eyes, ears, voice and hands are quite useless when operated consciously.

I travel and drive in a lot of new places and even the novelty of novelty wears off.

At some point you’ll see a car careen into the side of the curb across three lanes due to slick and you’ll be like ehhh I’ll just cut through with this route and move on about your day.

After driving for 20 years, about the only time I got scared in a novel situation was when I was far from cell service next to a cliff and sliding a mountain fast in deep mud running street tires due to unexpected downpour in southern Utah. I didn’t necessarily know what to do but I could reason it out.

I don’t really find “using a new route” difficult at all. If I miss my exit, I’m just going to keep driving and find a U-turn — no point to stress over it.

Remember that what matters is the general driving populace, and there will always be people who drive better and who drive worse.

Also, a very significant portion of drivers overestimate their driving skills, in particular older drivers. Having only been scared once in 20 years would likely make someone lenient and dull their senses as nothing requiring notable effort or attention ever seems to happen to them.