Or he's completely deranged and the drugs have irreversibly damaged his mind. Both scenarios, or some intersection therein, are plausible.
His Tesla stock is personally levered. I don't know at what point he gets margin called, but a sharp drawdown in Tesla's stock price could force him to sell stock in his crown jewel, SpaceX. (Or just extract money from it somehow. Either way, diminish it.)
He took on 13 billion of debt for Twitter, but it seems like dreaming to think this would be enough even if Tesla went bankrupt.
As of 2023 Musk had 238,441,261 "shares pledged as collateral to secure certain personal indebtedness [1].
I have not seen any great reporting around what prices he borrowed at (and thus when his margin calls may come).
> Is any of it tied to SpaceX?
Not directly. My point is if Tesla goes bankrupt he has to sell something to make good on those loans. (After, presumably, a year of court fights.) If Tesla is under there will be litigation around an xAI disposal. So that basically leaves Twitter and SpaceX, and one of those is more marketable than the other.
[1] https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000119312523094075/d4...
I wish English had better language to distinguish possibility arising from limited observer information about the world versus possibility arising from uncertain future. I'm not saying you did it, but people tend to conflate the two.