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Understanding Solar Energy

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261 points chmaynard | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.21s | source
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pfdietz ◴[] No.43422192[source]
The bit how about incredibly quickly PV has grown is a figurative slap in the face to Vaclav Smil. He had just ten years earlier said PV wasn't going to grow quickly because historically energy replacements took a long time.

https://vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/scientific...

This retrospective on Smil's predictions four years ago is notable:

https://www.quora.com/Is-Vaclav-Smil-right-in-his-criticisms...

"To get 1 PWh/year of electricity you need to install about 450 GW worth of solar panels. You need dozens of years to acomplish such task. Reality check: 3 years in current speed, in the future probably faster."

Indeed, as the thread top link shows in 2024 the world installed 595 GW of PV.

As John Kenneth Galbraith said, "If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error."

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1. ZeroGravitas ◴[] No.43428367[source]
Smil was just bullshitting though, really poor quality arguments made for rhetorical effect with a side helping of smug fake reasonableness.

He's a cranky old academic propelled to fame because he said what the establishment wanted to hear like an energy Jordan Peterson.