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151 points jcartw | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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blindriver ◴[] No.43315446[source]
I worked at a crypto company and left after I realized that 99% of crypto are scams. Either people get rugpulled or they get their wallets emptied by scammers, and I don't think Apple would have survived if the iPhone was a hotbed of scams. There's a tiny sliver of activity which isn't purely scams, like BTC or ETH but even then there's almost no real use case except the Greater Fool Theory, and I just don't think that's sustainable. I think at some point the entire industry is going to get rugpulled because there's still no inherent demand except selling it to someone else for more money.
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chiefalchemist ◴[] No.43315711[source]
BTC aside, the rest are scams. As for BTC I went to this presentation at Princeton University in late 2024.

BTC isn’t perfect but often enough it’s better than centralized alternatives.

https://www.princeton.edu/events/2024/book-talk-resistance-m...

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1. kinakomochidayo ◴[] No.43322799[source]
BTC in its current form is probably the biggest scam in existence right now. BTC does not work long term, as block rewards increasingly get cut in half and the transaction fees aren’t enough to incentivize the miners. It’s been well known outside the Bitcoin community, and slowly talked about within Bitcoin, with some core devs like Peter Todd talking about tail emission, but that would break the 21 million cap. Bitcoin is screwed.

https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~smattw/CKWN-CCS16.pdf

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2. petertodd ◴[] No.43327511[source]
> with some core devs like Peter Todd talking about tail emission, but that would break the 21 million cap. Bitcoin is screwed.

Tail emission, economically speaking, means that the ~0.5%/year or whatever coins that get lost each year go to miners rather than get evenly spread across everyone holding Bitcoin. That's economically equivalent to imposing a ~0.5%/year tax to pay for security.

You can do essentially the same thing - economically speaking - without touching the 21 million cap with a soft-fork implementing a security tax directly when coins are spent.

Neither solution means Bitcoin is screwed. Even 0.5%/year compounded over 50 years - a lifetime of savings - is just 28%. And of course, 0.5% means nothing compared to the ups and downs of any currency. Bitcoin already has about 0.5% monetary supply growth per year right now; it's only in the long run that the subsidy goes away.

A lot of "Bitcoin Maxi's" are of course horrified by all this. But a lot can change in the 8-12 years before any of this really matters. And who knows, maybe fees will be sufficient? IMO it's stupid to take the risk when a solution is cheap and doable. But that doesn't mean the game theory problem will actually happen in real life. Other coins survive with much bigger game theory problems, like straight up centralization.