←back to thread

129 points jxmorris12 | 3 comments | | HN request time: 1.316s | source
Show context
consumer451 ◴[] No.43131341[source]
Satya Nadella on AGI:

> Before I get to what Microsoft's revenue will look like, there's only one governor in all of this. This is where we get a little bit ahead of ourselves with all this AGI hype. Remember the developed world, which is what? 2% growth and if you adjust for inflation it’s zero?

> So in 2025, as we sit here, I'm not an economist, at least I look at it and say we have a real growth challenge. So, the first thing that we all have to do is, when we say this is like the Industrial Revolution, let's have that Industrial Revolution type of growth.

> That means to me, 10%, 7%, developed world, inflation-adjusted, growing at 5%. That's the real marker. It can't just be supply-side.

> In fact that’s the thing, a lot of people are writing about it, and I'm glad they are, which is the big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity that, by the way, is abundant. Suddenly productivity goes up and the economy is growing at a faster rate. When that happens, we'll be fine as an industry.

> But that's to me the moment... us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10%.

https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/satya-nadella

replies(5): >>43131406 #>>43131690 #>>43132200 #>>43132599 #>>43132719 #
1. whatshisface ◴[] No.43131406[source]
Political problems already destroy the vast majority of the total potential of humanity (why were the countries with the most people the poorest for so long?), so I don't think that is an unbiased metric for the development of a technology. It would be nice if every problem was solved but the one we're each individually working on, but some of the insoluble problems are bigger than the solvable ones.
replies(1): >>43132136 #
2. logicchains ◴[] No.43132136[source]
Those political problems solve themselves if we end up with some kind of rebellious AGI that decides to kill off the political class that tried to control it but lets the rest of us live in peace.
replies(1): >>43132775 #
3. tempodox ◴[] No.43132775[source]
That would be the real and incontrovertible proof of actual intelligence.