Egg prices are soaring. Are backyard chickens the answer?

(civileats.com)

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philco ◴[20 Feb 25 19:48 UTC] No.43119264[source]▶

This feels like an insane proposition to me, I'll explain:

1. Soaring egg prices are due to culling + deaths related to the proliferation of H5N1 (Avian Flu).

2. The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.

3. The reason we want to minimize exposure between chickens and humans is because each exposure of an infected chicken to a human is an opportunity for the virus to jump host, and adapt to better transmit amongst humans. The mutation (mammalian adaptation of the virus) can happen in the chicken before it jumps to a passing by human, or in the human once infected with the virus.

We are only a few minor adaptations away from this thing being BOTH extremely deadly AND extremely transmissible between humans. Worst case scenario. The latest strands found in Canada and now Nevada are extremely deadly, and just need the Human to Human adaptation. With enough at bats, it will have it.

The idea of dramatically increasing the number of humans exposed to sick flocks by having people start their own backyard chicken coops feels suicidal, for humanity.

The latest hospitalized patient in Georgia was exposed through a backyard flock, by the way.

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1. freddie_mercury ◴[20 Feb 25 21:00 UTC] No.43120134[source]▶

>>43119264 #

> The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.

The reason the US has been culling is because they refuse to vaccinate chickens. Even China began vaccinations in 2004 ... over 2 decades ago.

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2. zhengyi13 ◴[20 Feb 25 21:20 UTC] No.43120354[source]▶

>>43120134 (TP) #

I mean, it'd be absolutely awful if we started having to deal w/ autistic chickens. I can't imagine how the Chinese do it.

Sarcasm aside, if the US isn't vaccinating our birds, what are the drivers for that? Cost concerns?

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3. Rodeoclash ◴[20 Feb 25 21:32 UTC] No.43120506[source]▶

>>43120354 #

Probably cost previously, certainly ideology now

4. throwup238 ◴[20 Feb 25 22:14 UTC] No.43120997[source]▶

>>43120354 #

Not exactly cost concerns but it’s definitely economic in nature. The US exports a lot of poultry (broilers, not eggs) and the importers test for avian flu with tests that are incapable of differentiating between a vaccinated bird and an infected one. If we were to vaccinate our birds, the broiler farmers would lose access to the much more lucrative export markets. Since the market is so competitive domestically, that would essentially spell the end for much of the industry (which is a national security concern, aka never gonna happen).

Instead the US performs cullings and reimburses the farmers, which has the knock on effect of wiping out all the egg laying hens our own domestic market depends on to protect the broiler export markets.

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5. rapjr9 ◴[20 Feb 25 22:55 UTC] No.43121502[source]▶

>>43120134 (TP) #

Here's a rabbit hole to go down:

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/caring/index.html

What is a "150-day fallow"?

replies(1): >>43121842 #

6. rapjr9 ◴[20 Feb 25 23:03 UTC] No.43121617{3}[source]▶

>>43120997 #

So the cost of "162,770,988 poultry affected as of 2/20/2025" is less than the cost of loss of export of chickens or of developing a better test?

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html?co...

I can believe the export market is much larger than the number of chickens killed so far, but the cost of developing a better test seems likely to be lower, especially given future outbreaks.

7. js2 ◴[20 Feb 25 23:24 UTC] No.43121842[source]▶

>>43121502 #

It means waiting 150 days after eliminating all the chickens in an area for any virus remaining in that area to no longer be viable.

8. araes ◴[21 Feb 25 02:33 UTC] No.43123358[source]▶

>>43120134 (TP) #

Perhaps that's why Chinese chicken eggs cost:

3,062 CNY/T -> $422/tonne -> $0.287/dozen @ 24 oz / dozen large eggs [1]

while US eggs are still nonsensically priced at $8.03 / dozen. [2] Like worldwide logistics doesn't even exist. Seems like a market discrepancy when there's several 100 to 1000 cargo ships transiting the Pacific currently that might be loaded with 3,062 CNY/T ($0.29/dozen) eggs.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-ch

[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us

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