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When imperfect systems are good: Bluesky's lossy timelines

(jazco.dev)
768 points cyndunlop | 4 comments | 19 Feb 25 17:48 UTC | HN request time: 0.862s | source
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PaulHoule ◴[19 Feb 25 20:03 UTC] No.43106832[source]▶
An airline reservation system has to be perfect (no slack in today's skies), a hotel reservation can be 98% perfect so long as there is some slack and you don't mind putting somebody up in a better room than they paid for from time to time.

A social media system doesn't need to be perfect at all. It was clear to me from the beginning that Bluesky's feeds aren't very fast, not like they are crazy slow, but if it saves money or effort it's no problem if notifications are delayed 30s.

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singleshot_ ◴[19 Feb 25 20:25 UTC] No.43107149[source]▶
Does the fact that an airline booking system must be perfect explain why so many flights are overbooked or cancelled?
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rconti ◴[19 Feb 25 20:28 UTC] No.43107193[source]▶
No, overbooking is a business decision justified by the fact that, statistically, not all passengers will actually show up for their flight, and lower load factors cost money.
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josefresco ◴[19 Feb 25 20:36 UTC] No.43107315[source]▶
What is the "no show" rate?
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nightpool ◴[19 Feb 25 20:51 UTC] No.43107495[source]▶
A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-n...

However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)

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SteveNuts ◴[19 Feb 25 20:56 UTC] No.43107552[source]▶
That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections?

I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.

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lhoff ◴[19 Feb 25 21:07 UTC] No.43107704[source]▶
A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights.

Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.

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listenallyall ◴[19 Feb 25 23:02 UTC] No.43108890[source]▶
No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.
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1. lukas099 ◴[20 Feb 25 05:39 UTC] No.43111494[source]▶
> You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.

Maybe they've figured out that enabling their employees to stay a few extra hours without worry to finish a deal is worth it.

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2. pests ◴[20 Feb 25 06:24 UTC] No.43111716[source]▶
Similar reasons people buy overnight sleeper tickets from the west coast to asia for sky-high prices. That person has to be there, and they have to be rested. If they are negotiating 100m+ dollar contracts its a no-brainer.
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3. listenallyall ◴[20 Feb 25 07:09 UTC] No.43111936[source]▶
Vast majority of consultants are working on engagements where "the deal" was negotiated weeks/months earlier.

The goal isn't to eliminate flexibility, it's understanding probabilities. If fully-flexible/refundable flights are 3x the fare of restricted, then in aggregate, the company could have a chunk of consultants throw out their original reservations and rebook later flights, and still save money. Yes- sometimes consultants need to stay longer than planned, but in an age of prioritizing "work-life balance," most consultants are encouraged to stick to their schedule and get back home when originally planned.

4. listenallyall ◴[20 Feb 25 08:10 UTC] No.43112257[source]▶
Intercontinental business-class tickets have a tangible benefit, guaranteed lie-down seat and relaxing accommodations that enable rest, as you correctly point out. Flexible airline tickets have no tangible benefit, it is simply risk mitigation (avoiding wasting a nonrefundable ticket if a person can't make a flight) and like other risk-mitigation products such as insurance, extended warranties, car rental protection, etc, it is priced so that the cost exceeds the benefit.

And as stated elsewhere, the majority of consultants are relatively junior people whose role has nothing to do with negotiating contracts.