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When imperfect systems are good: Bluesky's lossy timelines

(jazco.dev)
768 points cyndunlop | 2 comments | 19 Feb 25 17:48 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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PaulHoule ◴[19 Feb 25 20:03 UTC] No.43106832[source]▶
An airline reservation system has to be perfect (no slack in today's skies), a hotel reservation can be 98% perfect so long as there is some slack and you don't mind putting somebody up in a better room than they paid for from time to time.

A social media system doesn't need to be perfect at all. It was clear to me from the beginning that Bluesky's feeds aren't very fast, not like they are crazy slow, but if it saves money or effort it's no problem if notifications are delayed 30s.

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singleshot_ ◴[19 Feb 25 20:25 UTC] No.43107149[source]▶
Does the fact that an airline booking system must be perfect explain why so many flights are overbooked or cancelled?
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rconti ◴[19 Feb 25 20:28 UTC] No.43107193[source]▶
No, overbooking is a business decision justified by the fact that, statistically, not all passengers will actually show up for their flight, and lower load factors cost money.
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josefresco ◴[19 Feb 25 20:36 UTC] No.43107315[source]▶
What is the "no show" rate?
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nightpool ◴[19 Feb 25 20:51 UTC] No.43107495[source]▶
A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-n...

However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)

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SteveNuts ◴[19 Feb 25 20:56 UTC] No.43107552[source]▶
That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections?

I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.

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lhoff ◴[19 Feb 25 21:07 UTC] No.43107704[source]▶
A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights.

Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.

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listenallyall ◴[19 Feb 25 23:02 UTC] No.43108890[source]▶
No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.
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1. NikolaNovak ◴[20 Feb 25 02:13 UTC] No.43110275[source]▶
* A massive bulk of flex rates is different price than a single flex ticket

* when I travelled to a single city with 20+ colleagues for several years, our nightly hotel rate was less than quarter of published rate. I don't think we got anything like that on Airlines, but nevertheless, bulk gets discounts.

* I forget details but between specific frequent cities which had hourly flights, we had full flexibility and we used this all the time. So we might catch a flight hour earlier if there was one available, or hour later if need be than booked.

Basically to everybody's point, business travel is very different than vacation travel and intuition from once a year personal trip don't apply.

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2. listenallyall ◴[20 Feb 25 03:07 UTC] No.43110643[source]▶
* Hotels are required by law to have a published "rack rate" and it's common for both leisure and business travelers to book at more than half, or more, off those rates. Airlines don't have that.

* Yes of course there are negotiated discounts for major corporations- but full flexibility is still far more expensive than restricted tickets, just like business is still far more expensive than economy.

* Most airlines offer guaranteed same-day changes, or at least priority standby, to high-status loyalty members (which most consultants are) so buying full-flex tickets to get an hour earlier/later flexibility is redundant - basically, paying for a benefit you already have.