I went from accepting I wouldn't see a true AI in my lifetime, to thinking it is possible before I die, to thinking it is possible in in the next decade, to thinking it is probably in the next 3 years to wondering if we might see it this year.
Just 6 months ago people were wondering if pre-training was stalling out and if we hit a wall. Then deepseek drops with RL'd inference time compute, China jumps from being 2 years behind in the AI race to being neck-and-neck and we're all wondering what will happen when we apply those techniques to the current full-sized behemoth models.
It seems the models that are going to come out around summer time may be jumps in capability beyond our expectations. And the updated costs means that there may be several open source alternatives available. The intelligence that will be available to the average technically literate individual will be frightening.
Bedroom superweapons? Algorithmic propaganda? These things have humans in the loop building them. And the problem of "human alignment" is one unsolved since Cain and Abel.
AI alone is words on a screen.
The sibling thread details the "mass unemployment" scenario, which would be destabilizing, but understates how much of the current world of work is still physical. It's a threat to pure desk workers, but we're not the majority of the economy.
Perhaps there will be political instability, but .. we're already there from good old humans.
It has certainly had this impact on my identity; I am unclear how well-grounded I really am*.
> I've yet to see really good articulations of what, precisely we should be scared of.
What would such an articulation look like, given you've not seen it?
> Bedroom superweapons? Algorithmic propaganda? These things have humans in the loop building them.
Even with current limited systems — which are not purely desk workers, they're already being connected to and controlling robots, even by amateurs — AI lowers the minimum human skill level needed to do those things.
The fear is: how far are we from an AI that doesn't need a human in the loop? Because ChatGPT was almost immediately followed by ChaosGPT, and I have every reason to expect people to continue to make clones of ChaosGPT continuously until one is capable of actually causing harm. (As with 3d-printed guns, high chance the first ones will explode in the face of the user rather than the target).
I hope we're years away, just as self driving cars turned out to be over-promised and under-delivered for the last decade — even without a question of "safety", it's going to be hard to transition the world economy to one where humans need not apply.
> And the problem of "human alignment" is one unsolved since Cain and Abel.
Yes, it is unsolved since time immemorial.
This has required us to not only write laws, but also design our societies and institutions such that humans breaking laws doesn't make everything collapse.
While I dislike the meme "AI == crypto", one overlap is that both have nerds speed-running discovering how legislation works any why it's needed — for crypto, specifically financial legislation after it explodes in their face; for AI, to imbue the machine with a reason to approximate society's moral code, because they see the problem coming.
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* Dunning Kruger applies; and now I have first-hand experience of what this feels like from the inside, as my self-perception of how competent I am at German has remained constant over 7 years of living in Germany and improving my grasp of the language the entire time.