That’s one of the reasons for the turbulent times. Let’s face the truth, most of the defense can easily be used for offense and given the state of online security every progress gets into the wrong hands.
Maybe it’s time to pause to make it more difficult for those wrong hands.
Yes, many defensive uses of technologies can be used for offense. When I say defense, I also include offense there as I don't believe you can just have a defensive posture alone to maintain one's defense, you need deterrence too. Personally I'm quite happy to see many in Silicon Valley embrace defense-tech and build missiles (ex. recent YC co), munitions, and dual-use tech. The world is a scary and dangerous place, and awful people will take advantage of the weakness of others if they can. Maybe I'm biased because I spent a lot of time in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but I much prefer the U.S. with all our faults to another actor like China or Russia being dominant
Every kinetic reaction by Russia in Georgia and Ukraine is downstream of major destabilizing non-kinetic actions by the US.
You don't think the US fomenting revolutions in Russia's near-abroad was in any way a contributing factor to Russian understanding of the strategic situation on its western border? [1] You don't think the US unilaterally withdrawing from the ABM treaty[2], and then following that up with plans to put ABMs in Eastern Europe[3], were factors in the security stability of the region? You don't think that the US pushing to enlarge NATO without adjusting the CFE treaty to reflect the inclusion of new US allies had an impact? [4][5] It's long been known that the Russian military lacked the capacity for sustained offensive/expeditionary operations outside of its borders.[6][7] Until ~2014 it didn't even possess the force structure for peer warfare, as it had re-oriented its organization for counter-insurgency in the Caucasus. So what was driving US actions in Eastern Europe? This was a question US contrarians and politicians such as Pat Buchanan were asking as early as 1997. We've had almost 3 decades of American thinkers cautioning that pissing around in Russia's western underbelly would eventually trigger a catastrophic reaction[8], and here we are, with the Ukrainians paying the butcher's bill.
In the absence of US actions, the kleptocrats in Moscow would have been quite content continuing to print money selling natural resources to European industry and then wasting their largess buying up European villas and sports teams. But the siloviki have deep-seated paranoia which isn't entirely baseless (Russia has eaten 3 devastating wars originating from its open western flanks in the past ~120 years). As a consequence the US has pissed away one of the greatest accomplishments of the Cold War: the Sino-Soviet Split. Our hamfisted attempts to kick Russia while it was down have now forced the two principle powers on the Eurasian landmass back into bed with each other. This is NOT how we win The Great Game.
> Maybe I'm biased because I spent a lot of time in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but I much prefer the U.S. with all our faults to another actor like China or Russia being dominant.
It would help to lead with this context. My position is that our actions ENSURE that a hostile Eurasian power bloc will become dominant. We should have used far less stick to integrate Russia into the Western security structure, as well as simply engaged them without looking down our noses at them as a defeated has-been power (play to their ego as a Great Power). A US-friendly Russia is needed to over-extend China militarily. We need China to be forced into committing forces to the long Sino-Russian border, much as Ukraine must garrison its border with Belarus. We need to starve the PRC's industry of cheap natural resources. Now the China-Russia-Iran soft-alliance has the advantage of interior lines across the whole continent, and a super-charged Chinese industrial base fed by Siberia. Due to the tyranny of distance, this will be an near-impossible nut to crack for the US in a conflict.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
[2] https://www.armscontrol.org/events/2001-12/abm-treaty-withdr...
[3] https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/americas-abm...
[4] https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2003/17
[5] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/1997-08/features/nato-and-ru...
[6] https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-...
[7] https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...
otherwise, we may be surrounded by both the US and Russia
or, maybe, the current situation is the result of decisions made after careful consideration at the time, by whom deeply understand all you said now.
maybe, they just considered... EU is also a threat to them, they don't want a united europe, so a conflict between two enemies... is just fine? an angry russia will make EU more united(with the US)
It is important to stress that the money-oriented kleptocrats and siloviki (KGB-oldtimers) are two opposite groups. Kleptocrats dominated in the 1990s, but lost to KGB oldtimers like Putin, who consolidated power by the late 1990s, because they were more ruthless. In the following decade, they crushed all opposition and turned the country from a dysfunctional democracy into a full dictatorship, and then set their sight on their long-term goal of restoring "the lost empire", which includes roughly 100 million Europeans who regained their freedom when the USSR collapsed. Revanchism has always been at the very core of siloviks.
The countries in Eastern Europe were first to recognize which way the ball was rolling by mid-to-late 1990s, and that's why they set EU and NATO integration as their main foreign policy goals, hoping that tight integration into international organizations would increase their security. Your notion that the US "pushed" NATO enlargement is just plain wrong. Almost the entire Eastern Europe was begging to get into NATO, against very lukewarm reception.
Their completely rational fears were dismissed by existing members with the erroneous belief that Russians were motivated by money, and would not risk harming piggy banks like Gazprom by invading Eastern Europe again. Ironically, that made the eventual entry into NATO easier, as existing members didn't think at the time that Russia posed any real danger. The largest entry took place in 2004, as the NATO was being transformed into an anti-terrorism force in the aftermath of 9/11.
If there's anything to blame the Americans for, then -- according to Andrei Kozyrev, the foreign minister of Russia from 1990 to 1996 -- the Americans could've put more pressure on Russia already in the 1990s to prevent it from declining into a dictatorship. But it was more convenient to remain ignorant of the destruction of Russian democracy and the long downward spiral into a totalitarian dictatorship, and remain seduced by naive illusions like the ones you present us.
For example, the entire idea of Russia as an ally against China is ridiculous. Russians don't care about China one bit and China is not a meaningful part of the public discourse. Russia is a colonial empire run by the city-state of Moscow, with St Petersburg having some historical importance. Take a look at a map. Both St Petersburg and Moscow are few hundred kilometers from the European border. This is where the mental center of Russian government lies, and this is the area where their ambitions are. China, in contrast, is many thousands of kilometers away, and culturally even more distant. China is a strange, faraway place. The Russians who matter (elites in Moscow and St Petersburg) have very little to do with it. Russia does not have a huge outsourced manufacturing in China, nor do they compete in science or technology. Russians are completely outclassed, simple consumers of cheap Chinese goods like most of the world.
Instead, Russians fantasize about the "multipolar world" and other alternative realities where they could be a carbon copy of the US in Europe, but they are in no position to make it a reality. The post-WWII Europe with a hundred million Europeans living under Russian dominance was a historic glitch. Russians cling to this as a mythical "golden era" and are willing to throw everything away in a futile attempt to turn back time. Relations, money, people -- everything. Nothing else matters.
These fantasies are driven by the fact that Russia is a still a feudal society that has not gone through enlightenment. As such, it is incapable of engaging with other European nations on equal terms, in peaceful ways, for mutual benefit. And this has nothing to do with the Americans, NATO, or any other commonly presented excuse. The reasons are purely internal: failure to develop past feudal society, into a modern state, run by professional bureaucracy, guided by laws, adopted by politicians, voted into office by the people, serving the interests of the electorate.
Russia has been invading and massacring their neighbours for centuries. They just use whatever bs excuse that sounds kind of plausible or amusing at the time. You know - they have to invade Ukraine because the popularly elected jewish comedian is a nazi dictator etc. I think they just like tolling their victims as they rape, murder, steal and torture.
If you can fault the Americans it was propping them up after WW2, after they started it in collaboration with Hitler, so they could continue the evil. Patton had the right idea https://www.quora.com/When-Patton-said-we-defeated-the-wrong...