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Starship Flight 7

(www.spacex.com)
649 points chinathrow | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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EncomLab ◴[] No.42736458[source]
First Shuttle orbited astronauts and successfully recovered all intended components. Every Saturn 5 was successful, the 3rd flight sent a crew to lunar orbit, and the 6th put a crew on the moon.

To date a Starship has yet to be recovered after flight - and those launched are effectively boilerplate as they have carried no cargo (other than a banana) and have none of the systems in place to support a crew.

Some people are really fetishizing iterative failure - but just because you are wandering in the desert does not mean there is a promised land.

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jve ◴[] No.42736593[source]
Apollo WAS an impressive achievement

Starship IS an impressive achievement while they speed up development process with real-world hard data

New Glenn IS an impressive achievement while taking their time to develop a vehicle that reached the orbit on first time

Per wiki on Apollo

> Landing humans on the Moon by the end of 1969 required the most sudden burst of technological creativity, and the largest commitment of resources ($25 billion; $182 billion in 2023 US dollars)[22] ever made by any nation in peacetime. At its peak, the Apollo program employed 400,000 people and required the support of over 20,000 industrial firms and universities.[23]

Different budget, different number of people working on this stuff and different mindset. Actually the Apollo program was also iterative and it paid off.

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tsimionescu ◴[] No.42736722[source]
The Apollo program was inventing all of this technology, and using only extremely rudimentary computers, still doing many calculations with slide rulers.

SpaceX has all of the Apollo program's work to build on, and computers that could do all the computing work that the Apollo program ever made, in total, in probably a few minutes.

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throw5959 ◴[] No.42736758[source]
SpaceX is inventing quite a lot, there's more areas where they started greenfield than where they got help.
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tsimionescu ◴[] No.42736889[source]
They are inventing a little, but the basics of rocket flight are now well understood. You can get a university (probably post grad) course on it. And nothing that they are doing is all that revolutionary, definitely not compared to what Apollo did (going from airplanes and ballistic missiles to orbital space flight and then Moon missions).

Consider that even reusable self-landings boosters were being worked on in the 90s, before funding was cut off. And for expandable rockets, virtually all rockets designed and launched in the last few decades have successfully accomplished their first ever flight, launching some kind of payload to orbit.

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perihelions ◴[] No.42737762[source]
- "And for expandable rockets, virtually all rockets designed and launched in the last few decades have successfully accomplished their first ever flight,"

That doesn't resonate as true to me.

The first Ariane 5 flight blew up [0]. That Europe's current heavy-lift workhorse with 112 successful launches (including JWST), but the first one blew up.

The first PSLV blew up [1]. That's India's current workhorse with 58 successes, but flight #1 was not successful. Their GSLV did not reach its correct orbit on its first flight either [2], though it didn't blow up.

The first Delta IV Heavy did not blow up, but it failed to reach its correct orbit [3]. That was US' largest launch vehicle for most of the 21st century.

The first Long March 5 failed to reach its correct orbit, and the second one blew up [4]. That's China's current heavy-lift launch vehicle, since 2016.

South Korea's first orbital rocket RUD'd both its first flights, in 2009 and 2010 [5].

Japan's newest orbital rocket was launched in 2023, and that blew up [6].

Rocket Labs' Electron has a current >90% success rate, but the first one blew up [7].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_5#Launch_history

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_PSLV_launches#Statisti...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_GSLV_launches#Statisti...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_IV_Heavy#Launch_history

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_March_5

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naro-1#Launch_history

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3_(rocket)#Launch_history

[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Lab_Electron#Launch_sta...

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tsimionescu ◴[] No.42738008[source]
You're right that I exaggerated, sorry about that.

Still, many of these are more successful than Starship:

The first GSLV was still able to deploy a satellite, just in a lower orbit than intended.

The first Delta IV had the same problem, satellite deployed, but in a lower orbit than planned.

The first Long March 5 is classed as a full success on Wikipedia, I couldn't find info there about a failure (the second one did blow up).

The Rocket Labs' Electron did get destroyed. However it was later found that nothing at all was wrong with the vehicle, it was a failure in the ground software, and an identical vehicle successfully carried out its mission 7 months later.

In contrast, the first two Starships blew up completely due to engine issues, and no Starship has deployed even a test payload of some kind to orbit. In fact, until today, none even carried a payload of any kind, they have all been flying empty.

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1. TimTheTinker ◴[] No.42743120[source]
> Still, many of these are more successful than Starship:

Your definition of success doesn't leave room for anomalies. Your mindset seems to be "if you try and it's doesn't turn out perfectly, it's a failure" -- which results in spending tons of time and money iterating behind closed doors (or even worse, trying to model/calculate the whole thing without many test runs), and only unveiling the result when it's "perfect". This approach costs more time and money, and more embarrassment if/when the product fails in public. It also doesn't build a culture of learning a lot from anomalies.

Meanwhile, SpaceX doesn't care about iterating, testing, and failing in public. So they skip all the costly effort of trying too hard not to fail, setting expectations that they get it right the first time, and not learning as much from anomalies.

Anomalies, properly understood, are opportunities to learn and improve -- and never something to be ashamed of. The only true "failures" are to give up because it's too hard, to stop learning from the data that anomalies provide, or to never try in the first place because you're too afraid of anomalies.

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2. majkinetor ◴[] No.42745086[source]
Amazing. Ty.